New Delhi: India is expected to experience a normal monsoon this year from June to September, private forecaster Skymet Weather said on Tuesday, suggesting potential benefits to agricultural output, rural demand and overall economic growth.
The outlook, which comes amid reports of above-normal temperatures across several parts of the country, is set to please the farming community as well as policymakers.
Skymet expects sufficiently good rains over western and southern India. The monsoon rainfed zones of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh will receive adequate rainfall. Excess rainfall is likely all along the Western Ghats, Kerala, coastal Karnataka and Goa. Further, the North-East region and hilly states of northern India are likely to receive less than normal rainfall.
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Skymet expects the upcoming monsoon to be ‘normal’ to the tune of 103% (give or take 5%) of the long-period average (LPA) of 868.6mm for June to September. The spread of normal is 96-104% of LPA.
The La Niña weather phenomenon, which could lead to an above-normal Indian monsoon, was weak and brief, and has started fading now, explained Jatin Singh, managing director, Skymet. The occurrence of El Niño—the unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean which normally disrupts the monsoon—is ruled out, he said.
ENSO-neutral—a state of equilibrium in sea temperature—is likely to be the most dominant category during the Indian summer monsoon, he said.
NITI Aayog member Ramesh Chand said he would await the official India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast to assess the implications of rainfall for farm output growth. He added, “If monsoon is normal, it will accelerate agriculture output growth and given its linkages with the rest of the economy, will benefit the non-agriculture part of the economy as well.”
“Besides, a normal monsoon will help to keep food inflation below 4%. Also, a normal monsoon would bring the best outcome for rice production. We are already rice-surplus. With enhanced rice production, we could plan the exports. Overall, strong agriculture output growth will help to mitigate whatever little adverse impact the imposition of additional tariffs by the US administration could have on the economy,” said Chand.
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As per official estimates from the statistics ministry released in February, farm output is projected to have grown by 4.6% in FY25, up from 2.7% in the year before, as the year benefited from normal monsoon showers and was marked by the absence of adverse weather events.
Robust growth in the largest sector of the economy—which accounts for 18% of the gross value added in the economy at current prices, and is also relied upon by 55% of the country’s total workforce for livelihood—is critical for the rural economy, demand for goods and services, capacity utilization at factories and fresh investments into manufacturing by the private sector. The Economic Survey 2024-25 has projected the economy to grow between 6.3% and 6.8% in FY26.
On Tuesday, heatwave conditions prevailed at most places with severe heat wave conditions in many pockets over West Rajasthan, the IMD said in its temperature status and heatwave warning.
On 31 March, in its latest weather prediction, the IMD had warned that most parts of the country are expected to have a hotter-than-usual summer during April to June this year. States which are likely to see above-normal heatwave days include Rajasthan, Gujarat, Haryana, Punjab, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and the northern parts of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu.
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Skymet’s Singh also explained the remnants of La Niña and ENSO-neutral together, will shield the monsoon from any egregious outcome and that the second half of the season is expected to be better than the primal phase.
“It’s good news that we are going to have normal monsoon. The normal monsoon is a boon to the farming community, and I believe that the agriculture sector will continue to grow anywhere between 3.5-4 %,” said Ashok Gulati, agricultural economist and former chairman, Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices.
The IMD is slated to release its initial forecast for the 2025 south-west monsoon after 15 April.
Gireesh Chandra Prasad contributed to this story.
Source:https://www.livemint.com/news/monsoon-rains-farm-output-food-inflation-skymet-forecast-la-ni-a-enso-neutral-imd-11744122995385.html