Delhi Election 2025: Key Lessons for BJP, Congress, AAP and INDIA Alliance

The BJP’s comeback in Delhi after nearly three decades of exile from power (since 1998) is a reaffirmation of the saffron party’s election-winning prowess and puts paid to the theory that the party only wins States where the Congress is the main challenger.

After it vanquished the Biju Janata Dal (BJD), the regional tiger in Odisha, and defeated regional parties who powered the INDIA combine in Maharashtra, the BJP has now dealt a body blow to the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in Delhi, which indicates its growing might, and that should be worrying for the Congress.

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However, the grand old party is busy rejoicing over the end of the AAP story that began in 2013, when Arvind Kejriwal defeated former Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit and earned the sobriquet of “giant slayer”. The fact that Kejriwal is the giant who has been slayed this time round might be of some comfort to Sandeep Dikshit, Sheila Dikshit’s son, who challenged Kejriwal in the New Delhi constituency and polled 4,500-plus votes. The fact remains, however, that despite talking about the achievements of Sheila Dikshit’s 15-year tenure, the Congress could not win even a single seat, which offers little hope for the party’s revival in Delhi.

Challenge before Congress

Kejriwal’s defeat at the hands of Parvesh Verma, son of former BJP Delhi Chief Minister Sahib Singh Verma, considered a relatively lightweight candidate, and the Congress being relegated to a distant third point to the enormous challenge that lies before the Congress in its road to revival. Compounding the confusion is the “ekla chalo” (go it alone) pitch of a section of Congress leaders, who have been exhorting the party’s top leadership to stop piggybacking on regional parties in States where the regional satraps owe their rise to the decline of the Congress.

In the run-up to the Delhi election, Ajay Maken, one of the most prominent Congress leaders from Delhi who is also the party’s treasurer, repeatedly spoke about the Congress having made a mistake by aligning with the AAP twice, and that perhaps this mistake was the reason why the Congress was not a beneficiary of the anti-incumbency against Kejriwal. The Delhi result opens up the question again about the party’s future course and whether it is in a position take a totally independent route. The irony of Congress leaders celebrating the AAP’s defeat despite itself winning zero seats in the last three Lok Sabha elections in Delhi as well as in the 2015, 2020, and the 2025 Assembly elections was lost on nobody.

Sanjay Jha, who was sacked as Congress spokesperson for “breach of discipline” after his comments about the state of affairs in the party, did not hide his anguish at the results. On the social media platform X, he said: “Zero seats in 3 consecutive state assembly elections in #Delhi is unforgivable. This, after the late Sheila Dikshit won three solid mandates (1998, 2003, 2008) and literally transformed Delhi. She only lost because of negative perceptions about the UPA government. The Congress has let down her legacy.” The overall mood in the Congress, however, was one of jubilation at the AAP’s defeat.

Keen to disallow the credit of victory to the BJP and slam the AAP at the same time, Congress general secretary in-charge for communications Jairam Ramesh said: “The 2025 Delhi Vidhan Sabha election results reflect nothing more than a referendum on Arvind Kejriwal and the Aam Aadmi Party…. This vote is a rejection of Arvind Kejriwal’s politics of deceit, deception, and vastly exaggerated claims of achievement.”

Congress’ campaigns

He also cited the “vigorous campaign” launched by the Congress in Delhi. But perhaps the campaign came too late. The Congress has a history of running similar campaigns that other parties have finally gained from. For instance, in 2010-11, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi led a vigorous campaign against Bahujan Samaj Party leader Mayawati in Uttar Pradesh. However, in the 2012 Assembly election it was Akhilesh Yadav of the Samajwadi Party (SP) who emerged victorious.

A year earlier, the Congress had joined hands with Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress to script the end of the 34-year-old rule of the Left Front in West Bengal. But 13 years later, the Congress ended up allying with the Left to fight the Trinamool in the Lok Sabha election. After the results, Mamata Banerjee said her party lost in four seats because of the Congress. This year, both Akhilesh Yadav and Mamata Banerjee of the INDIA bloc, rather than the Congress, lent support to Kejriwal, and he was grateful for it.

BJP breaks 27-year jinx

For the BJP, breaking the Delhi jinx after 27 years is the return of a favourable old pattern witnessed in some other States, where a regional party first takes away the space occupied by the Congress and the BJP then becomes the ruling party, defeating the regional outfit either on its own or in alliance with another party, as in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Odisha, and Karnataka.

In Karnataka, the first BJP government was formed in 2007 after a brief stint of the Janata Dal (Secular) government in 2006, which was the fifth government formed by the Janata Party or its offshoots in an otherwise Congress-dominated State. The BJP then chipped away substantially at the Janata Dal’s space.

In Tripura, the Trinamool took on the Congress, but by 2023 the BJP had nudged them both out. In Bihar, the space occupied by the Congress went to the Janata Dal and later got split among the Janata Dal (United), or JD(U), the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), and the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP). Later, the BJP allied with the JD(U) and the LJP, which led to the formation of a National Democratic Alliance government in Bihar that has continued since October 2005 with brief disruptions.

With the defeat of the Naveen Patnaik–led BJD in Odisha and the Arvind Kejriwal–led AAP in Delhi, the only regional party leader in a position to take on the BJP solo remains Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal, and even there the saffron party has made deep inroads—having won 77 seats in the 2021 Assembly election and notching up a 38.1 per cent vote share. The BJP won 12 Lok Sabha seats in 2024 in the State, while maintaining its vote share of 38 per cent.

Saffron surge

After Odisha and Delhi, the saffron party is clearly emerging as a choice in regions where it was lagging behind. Earlier, experts often attributed the Congress’ frequent defeats at the hands of the BJP to the fact that the Congress is not a cadre-based party. But by defeating a cadre-based political startup like the AAP, the BJP has turned that argument too in its favour. Barring Jharkhand, the BJP has won all the Assembly elections held after its subdued victory in the 2024 Lok Sabha election: Haryana, Maharashtra, and Delhi. Rasheed Kidwai, political analyst and author, told Frontline: “The Delhi verdict shows that the BJP seems to have cracked the code of ‘how to win an election’. At another level, it has rung the death knell for INDIA combine partners.”

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However, winning Delhi is like riding a tiger. For the BJP, meeting expectations will be a huge challenge, as the election was fought on big promises. Also, with the BJP being in control both at the Centre and in the State, there is no scapegoat to be blamed this time.

For the Congress, the alacrity with which the top party leadership targeted Kejriwal and the AAP shows that the INDIA combine of 2024 is no firm or close-knit alliance; its members will not shy away from fighting each other to protect their turfs, at least in Assembly elections. The Congress fought the last Assembly election in Uttar Pradesh in 2022 on its own and won just one seat, but when it contested the Lok Sabha election in 2024 in alliance with the SP it won six. In Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Tamil Nadu, and Jharkhand, the Congress is heavily dependent on allies such as the SP, the RJD, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, and the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha.

It is clear that when the Congress decides to go it alone, it is punching above its weight and also countering the efforts of the regional parties. These parties could well decide to close ranks against the grand old party and its plans to reclaim lost glory.