Local militant strength falls to single digit levels in Kashmir, with only one recruit this year so far

Photo used for representation purpose only.
| Photo Credit: ANI

There has been a record fall in the recruitment of youth into militancy in Jammu and Kashmir this year, according to official data. For the first time in 15 years, local militant strength has fallen to single digits, with official figures suggesting that the number of local militants currently active in J&K “is being considered as less than 10”.

The local recruitment figures fell to double digits in 2023 and 2024, with only a single new recruit recorded in 2025 so far. The last time local militancy was so low was in 2011-12.

Police officials say that most militancy in J&K is now driven by cross-border agents, with Pakistani handlers expected to push in more foreign militants this summer.

Sole recruit

This year, the J&K police’s special intelligence units have identified just one local resident of south Kashmir’s Kulgam who has taken up arms with a militant group. He was reported missing in January and it has now been concluded that he has joined the militant ranks.

“The process of categorisation of a local militant has a few parameters. A mere missing report does not suggest he has joined. The categorisation is only done once human or technical intelligence spot him with weapons or reported his involvement in an attack,” a police official said.  

Significant drop

The numbers have fallen significantly for the first time since Hizbul Mujahideen ‘commander’ Burhan Wani, killed in 2016, flipped local recruitment in Kashmir between 2013 and 2016. Many in the security establishment suggest that the hanging of Parliament attack convict Afzal Guru in 2013 also contributed to local recruitment in J&K, especially in the Valley.

According to the official data, around 160 local boys joined militancy in 2020, a year after the Centre abrogated the provisions of Article 370 in 2019. This fell to 125 locals in 2021, 130 in 2022, 23 in 2023, and around 20 in 2024, mostly in south Kashmir. “Around 90% of these recruits between 2019 and 2020 are dead now,” officials said.

Around 1,050 militants were killed in around 700 militancy-related incidents in J&K between 2019 and 2024. In 2019, the Pulwama suicide attack, which killed 40 CRPF jawans, took place on February 14, followed by the Centre’s move to end J&K’s special status on August 5.

Foreign militants dominate

However, official sources said that there was no let-up in the sightings of militants reported by multiple security agencies in south and north Kashmir. According to the police data, foreign militants, whose numbers remain dynamic, dominate the militancy scene in J&K. The security forces’ assessment suggested that the number of foreign militants “too is in double digits”.

“Foreign militants have decreased their dependence on local recruits and local help. They are using technology to navigate and prolong their stay in J&K,” another police official said.  

The police suspect that the killing of an ex-soldier in Kulgam on February 4 could be a joint operation by a local and a non-local militant. 

High alert

Police officials, however, warn of any complacency. “Handlers in Pakistan have the ability to flip militancy and recruit locals in J&K even today. The decline in numbers in no way should be construed as the end of militancy in J&K,” officials said. 

Security in J&K remains on a high alert in the wake of fresh intelligence reports of handlers in Pakistan pushing in more militants ahead of the summer. 

J&K Lieutenant Governor Manoj Sinha, who chaired a security review meeting on Thursday in Jammu, directed “stronger measures” to protect our borders. “We must strengthen border security against asymmetric threats due to a porous border with riverines and difficult mountain range and all the security agencies must work together to provide necessary back-up support,” the Lieutenant Governor said.