Delimitation Debate: Why Siddaramaiah, MK Stalin fear losing political clout in South – ‘like a knife hanging on’

Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah joined the chorus against delimitation on Thursday and described Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s remarks on the contentious issue as “not trustworthy.” Siddaramaiah accused the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) of using delimitation as a weapon to “silence” the southern states. Tamil Nadu CM MK Stalin has also opposed delimitation, urging a fair, transparent, and equitable process to protect states managing population growth.

“If the Union government genuinely wishes to ensure fairness for the southern states, the home minister must clarify whether delimitation will be based on the latest population ratio or on the current number of Lok Sabha seats,” Siddaramaiah said in a statement.

Shah said on Wednesday that Tamil Nadu would not lose any Lok Sabha seats after the delimitation. “Prime Minister Narendra Modi made it clear in the Lok Sabha that even after delimitation, the seats of none of the states of the south will be decreased,” Shah said.

However, the Karnataka CM said Shah’s comments were aimed to create confusion in the southern states. “It is evident that if delimitation is carried out based on the latest population ratio, it will be a severe injustice to the southern states. To prevent such unfairness, previous delimitation exercises were conducted using the 1971 census as the basis, following Constitutional amendments,” Siddaramaiah said.

Shah’s comments came after Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin expressed objection to delimitation, saying that the process must not penalise states that have successfully managed population growth. Stalin called for a fair, transparent, and equitable approach to the process to strengthen federalism in India.

“Delimitation isn’t just about Tamil Nadu – it affects all of South India. A democratic process should not penalise states that have successfully managed population growth, led in development, and made significant contributions to national progress,” ANI quoted Stalin as saying on Tuesday.

He also mentioned that Tamil Nadu could lose eight MPs due to delimitation and has even called for an all-party meeting on March 5 to discuss the issue.

“Delimitation is like a knife hanging on South India’s head since Tamil Nadu, the top state on all growth index, would get affected badly. Tamil Nadu has 39 MPs. A dangerous situation has arisen to reduce the number of MPs (from the state),” the Tamil Nadu CM had said.

What is delimitation?

Delimitation is the process of drawing boundaries of constituencies, according to the Election Commission of India. It is carried out based on the revised population data from the most recent census.

Delimitation is a Constitutional mandate. Article 82 of the Constitution says that Lok Sabha seat distribution must be adjusted based on population changes after every Census. The exercise has to be carried out after every Census to readjust the number of seats in Parliament and the boundaries of constituencies based on the latest population data. The idea is to ensure that each constituency has roughly the same number of people living in it.

What is the history of delimitation?

Until 1976, after every Census in India, the seats of Lok Sabha, Rajya Sabha and state legislative Assemblies were re-distributed throughout the country. The Censuses were held in 1951,1961 and 1971.

But the 42nd Amendment to the Constitution, passed during the Emergency, froze the total number of Parliamentary and state Assembly seats till the 2001 Census. The move was made to ensure that states with higher population growth could implement family planning measures without losing representation in Parliament.

The boundaries of constituencies were altered in 2001 but the number of seats that each state had in Lok Sabha and the strength of legislative Assemblies in the states was not changed amid opposition from southern states.

Why are Southern states worried?

The concern among the states in the South is that due to the better economy than northern counterparts, population growth in Southern states has been lower than in the North. Thus, the politicians representing Southern states worry that if delimitation is done based on population, northern states will get more seats in Parliament compared to the South. This would mean a reduced political significance for these states.

Regional parties from the South feel that delimitation based on population could skew elections in favour of parties, such as the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), with a base in the North.

The BJP has been dominating the states in the north for some time now. Of the 99 seats in Parliament, the Congress has a better presence in the south than in the north. The Congress has 53 seats in Karnataka, Maharashtra, Kerala, Telangana, and Tamil Nadu.

Many chief ministers have raised concerns about the ageing population in southern states before. In October 2024, Andhra Pradesh CM N Chandrababu Naidu, whose party TDP is an NDA ally, expressed concern over the ageing population in his state.

How are Lok Sabha seats of states allotted?

The number of seats a state gets is calculated based on the base average population that a delimitation commission arrives at. The commission is constituted ahead of the delimitation.

In the 1977 Lok Sabha, an MP in India represented 10.11 lakh people on average. There is no restriction on the base average population, however. Keeping a 10.11 lakh average for each seat would mean 1,400 Lok Sabha seats at present, based on the population projection of about 146 crore seats for 2025.

By this calculation, states with higher populations, such as UP and Bihar, will see a multiple jump (three times) in the number of Lok Sabha seats whenever delimitation is done. States like Tamil Nadu and Kerala would also see an increase (double) in seats in Lok Sabha, but not as proportionately as the states in the north would see.

The new Parliament has only 888 seats. So, a 10.11 lakh average for a seat will not be used to calculate the number of Lok Sabha seats a state gets.

Siddaramaiah said if the delimitation exercise is based on the latest census, then southern states, including Karnataka, will see either a reduction or stagnation in the number of Lok Sabha seats while the northern states gain more seats. “In either scenario, the southern states will bear the loss. Is the home minister unaware of this?” he asked.

LS seats in Karnataka are likely to decrease

The Karnataka Chief Minister referred to studies conducted on delimitation and said that if delimitation was based solely on the latest census (2021 or 2031), the number of Lok Sabha seats in Karnataka is likely to decrease from 28 to 26. Similarly, Andhra Pradesh’s seats will drop from 42 to 34, Kerala’s from 20 to 12, and Tamil Nadu’s from 39 to 31.

“Meanwhile, the number of Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh will increase from 80 to 91, Bihar from 40 to 50, and Madhya Pradesh from 29 to 33. If this is not injustice, what is?” Siddaramaiah asked in the statement.

Siddaramaiah alleged that the BJP government at the Centre has “now taken up the weapon of delimitation” to silence the voices of southern states further.