Cook Islands China deal riles allies as West’s grip loosens

The Cook Islands may be small but the ambitions of its leader are mighty.

A range of deals Prime Minister Mark Brown signed with China without consulting the public or New Zealand – an ally to which the Cooks is closely tied – has caused increasing irritation and concern.

The agreements are the first of their kind with a country that is not a traditional ally. They cover infrastructure, ship-building, tourism, agriculture, technology, education and, perhaps crucially, deep-sea mineral exploration.

Brown says his decisions will be based on the “long-term interests” of the Cook Islands, which are remote, resource-rich and vulnerable to climate change.

Not everyone agrees with him. The new, wide-ranging deals with Beijing have led to protests on Rarotonga – the largest Cook Island – and a vote of no confidence against Brown in parliament, which he survived earlier this week. They have also worried Australia, another powerful ally.

New Zealand said it was “blindsided” by the China deals, but Brown believes his country is independent and does not need to consult Wellington on issues he says are of no concern to them.

He has, nevertheless, tried to reassure Australia and New Zealand that the deals with China don’t replace their relationships. But the apparent snub comes at a time when the West’s grip on the Pacific seems to be loosening.

The rise of China in the Pacific isn’t new. Whether it’s bagging a security deal in the Solomon Islands or providing medical services in Tonga, China’s presence in the region has been growing. And the US and its allies have made a consistent effort to counter that.

But now there is a new dynamic at play as the Trump administration upends relationships with allies such as Ukraine and appears increasingly unpredictable.

The Cook Islands has had what’s known as a “free association” relationship with New Zealand, a former coloniser, since the 1960s – meaning Wellington helps on issues like defence and foreign affairs, and that Cook Islanders hold New Zealand citizenship.

The two countries are very close. There are around 15,000 Cook Islanders living in the Pacific island nation, but as many as 100,000 live in New Zealand and Australia. Culturally, Cook Island Māori – who make up the majority of the population – are also closely related to, but distinct from, New Zealand Māori.

The deals with China aren’t the only sign that Brown wants to pull away from New Zealand which have caused concern. He recently abandoned a proposal to introduce a Cook Islands passport following a public outcry.

“[The relationship with NZ] connects us politically and connects us to our brothers and sisters of Aotearoa [the Māori word for New Zealand] – they left our shores to sail to Aotearoa. We need to remember that,” said Cook Islander Jackie Tuara at a recent demonstration against Brown’s deals with China.

In a nation that is not used to huge displays of protest, several hundred people gathered outside parliament in Rarotonga, holding up placards that read: “Stay connected with NZ”. Others waved their New Zealand passports.

“Let us stand in partnership with countries that have the same democratic principles as we are a democratic nation, are we not?” Ms Tuara said. “We don’t want to see our land and our oceans sold to the highest bidder. Those resources are for us – for our children, for their future.”

But for all those who are opposed to Brown’s recent moves away from New Zealand, there are plenty of Cook Islanders who back him.

China specialist Philipp Ivanov, in apparent agreement with the prime minister, says that “the Pacific island nations have their own agency, their own motivations and their own capabilities”.

He believes that the recent developments in the Cook Islands are “all part of that little great game that’s going on between Australia and China and New Zealand in the Pacific. It’s a whack-a-mole kind of game.”

While the US has long been a dominant force in security and military in the region, China has tried to strengthen its ties with the small but strategic Pacific Island nations through aid, infrastructure and security deals.

In response, the likes of the US and the UK have beefed up their diplomatic presence across the region. Australia too has made it clear it will redouble its support. But it’s unclear to what extent US President Donald Trump will continue his predecessor’s commitments in the region to counter China – and Beijing is taking advantage of that.

Last week, planes flying between New Zealand and Australia were diverted after China conducted military exercises involving live fire. Both Australia and New Zealand had been trailing the three Chinese warships that were making their way down the eastern coast of Australia in what experts say is an escalation and unexpected show of power.

“It’s a pretty efficient way of testing the diplomatic response in both the Australia-China and New Zealand-China bilateral relationship, and what the US is prepared to say in defence [of its allies],” says defence analyst Euan Graham, from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute.

“It’s also making the point that in the numbers game, China will always be ahead of smaller countries with smaller navies and Australia’s navy is at a historic low.”

China’s ambassador to Australia, Xiao Qian, told national broadcaster ABC that Beijing’s actions had been appropriate and he won’t apologise for it.

Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has been keen to emphasise that no international laws were broken and that the drills were carried out in international waters. Indeed, many have pointed out that Australia and its allies often sail warships through the South China Sea.

“I’d see it as China wanting to capitalise on the chaotic effect that Trump is having right now,” says Mihai Sora, director of the Pacific Islands programme at Australia’s Lowy Institute. “China is taking advantage of that moment to [say], look Australia, you are actually alone. Where is the United States in all of this?”

Australia’s Foreign Minister Penny Wong freely admits “we are in a permanent state of contest in our region, that is the reality”.

In speaking out about the warships last week, Australia’s government was trying to reassure the public about China’s intentions, while also wanting to tell Australians that it’s all in hand. That is not a coincidence as Australia heads towards a federal election in the coming months.

“[Opposition leader Peter] Dutton comes from this national security and home affairs background, so the government doesn’t want to give him any air to criticise Labor,” Philipp Ivanov says. “Being weak on China would be disastrous for them, given what’s going on in the US and given our own elections.”

But it also brings into focus the dilemma this part of the world faces.

“Canberra will be contesting every single move that Beijing tries to make … and it reflects the fact that Canberra and Beijing have diverging strategic interests,” says James Laurenceson, the director of Australia-China Relations Institute at the University of Technology Sydney.

But, he adds, they also have “enormous commonalities” – China is Australia’s largest trading partner – and New Zealand’s – for instance.

“So you’ve got to be able to ride both these horses at the same time.”

It’s not an easy relationship – it never has been. The bigger surprise is that of the US, a traditional ally.

Although many in the Trump administration still describe China as a grave threat, US allies are unsure what to expect from the Washington-Beijing relationship.

And now, as Trump threatens steel and aluminium tariffs and a withdrawal of foreign assistance, Australia feels more isolated than ever. The recent activity of China’s warships in the Tasman Sea serves to highlight that isolation.

“I wouldn’t think of them as military acts, so much as political acts using military hardware,” says Mr Sora of the Lowy Institute.

“I think the political act is to say, look, we can do this anytime we want. You can’t do anything about it, and the United States is not doing anything about it, because they’re busy tearing down the global system.”