Can Pakistan Navigate Its Security Crisis While Balancing US-China Ties?

In yet another blow to Pakistan’s internal security, militants seized control of a train in the Bolan area of Balochistan on March 11. The Jaffar Express, with around 500 passengers in nine coaches, was travelling from Quetta to Peshawar. An army spokesperson said that the attack was quelled the next day after all 33 militants were killed. He added that 21 passengers and four soldiers were slain by the militants. The Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) later claimed responsibility for the attack.

Less than two months ago, on January 28, Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Afffairs had issued a statement on its China policy, with a spokesperson declaring that Pakistan’s relations with China remain unchanged and that Islamabad continues to support the one-China policy. The statement came after Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi attended an event sponsored by an anti-China group called the New Federal State of China (NFSC) during his US visit in January.

Although the Minister rejected the contention that the event was anti-China, the development underlined the sensitivity of Pakistan-China relations and Islamabad’s efforts to balance its relations with the US and China.

Chinese worries

In recent years, China has grown increasingly concerned about the slow progress of the much-hyped China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), while terror attacks on projects and Chinese nationals have only worsened the situation. This has forced China to demand that Pakistan take concrete security measures. It went further and proposed cooperation on security issues, but Pakistan rightly got worried and rejected the idea.

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Ever since the US withdrew from Afghanistan in 2021, Pakistan has been trying to remain relevant for the US, but at the same time, it does not want to strengthen ties at the cost of its relations with China.

This leads to us to the question, if Pakistan does not side with the US in the ongoing US-China conflict for global dominance, why will Washington need it? It has a better option in India, which has been collaborating with the US on almost every policy when it comes to efforts to contain China. However, given Pakistan’s deep reliance on China, it faces the challenge of balancing its ties with the two great powers.

A base for China

The grave economic and security situation only adds to its woes. There is speculation that Islamabad has privately agreed to hand over a military base to Beijing in the strategic location of Balochistan. Pakistan must reckon with the foreign policy implications of such a move vis-à-vis Washington, which certainly would not like Islamabad to be controlled by Beijing. Chinese access to the base may mitigate Pakistan’s economic crisis and allow for a continuous supply of advanced military hardware. However, it would also lead to the deterioration of ties with the US.

This has put the country at a crossroads. A year after the 2024 general election, Pakistan continues to be mired in political turmoil. Furthermore, it has been confronting security challenges and simmering public rage over economic troubles. Former Prime Minister Imran Khan, the most popular politician, remains in jail on a slew of charges. While the coalition government suffers from a lack of legitimacy, the military establishment continues to have a veto over the government’s policies.

Rise in attacks

According to Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS), an Islamabad-based think tank, terrorist attacks increased manifold in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Balochistan in October 2024. In KP alone, 35 attacks were recorded in which 64 people died; in Balochistan, there were eight terrorist attacks that left 30 people dead, compared with 19 in September.

On November 9, 2024, the BLA, a separatist group, carried out a suicide bomb attack at the Quetta railway station, killing 26 persons, including 14 soldiers. In its annual report for 2024, PIPS has revealed disturbing figures indicating the rise in the frequency and intensity of terrorist attacks in Pakistan. Stating that the present situation was as grim as in 2014, when terrorists stormed the Army Public School in Peshawar and killed 132 children, PIPS called for urgent action to stop the rising terror attacks in the country.

Trouble in Balochistan

Various rebel groups operating in Balochistan perceive the presence of Chinese forces as aiding the Pakistani government in strengthening control over the restive region and a threat to its resources. In the recent past, there has been an upsurge in terrorist attacks, deliberately targeting Chinese workers and ongoing developmental initiatives.

Certain leaked military and diplomatic documents accessed by the Drop Site News portal led to widespread speculation that Pakistan has privately agreed to grant China approval for a military base at the strategic port of Gwadar in Balochistan. Both Pakistan and China have rejected such claims.

The possible motivation for Pakistan to approve a military base lies in its economic and security problems. It is constantly in need of International Monetary Fund (IMF) loans to keep the economy afloat, and debt repayments and failure to raise capital have led the country to renegotiate loan terms with China.

Pakistan and rent

Earlier, Pakistan extracted strategic rent from the US because of its location, which helped overcome economic woes and to an extent aided military modernisation. However, the withdrawal of the US from Afghanistan means that Pakistan has no relevance for the US at the moment. Furthermore, the US appears keen to strengthen its economic and security relations with India, and is thus moving farther away from Pakistan.

Therefore, by allowing Beijing access to its military base in Gwadar, Pakistan may extract strategic rent. However, that is bound to affect its strategic autonomy in the long run. From the standpoint of internal security, it could further encourage the Baloch insurgents and other militant groups to target Chinese nationals and the development infrastructure.

The BLA views CPEC as an exploitation of Balochistan’s resources and a further marginalisation of the Baloch community. There is a strong possibility that the BLA may exploit such scenarios to fuel Baloch sentiment in the region, where many have long accused the Pakistani state of unfairly appropriating its rich mineral and gas reserves.

With an increase in the direct attacks on Chinese projects and nationals, recent reports have suggested that Beijing is increasingly pushing Pakistan to opt for a joint military mechanism to safeguard Chinese citizens and the infrastructure projects in the country.

In a recent statement, Chinese Ambassador Jiang Ziadong emphasised that the security threats are the main reason behind the CPEC’s slow progress. He insisted that the Pakistani government should take measures to provide greater security to Chinese nationals working in the country.

Since its formation and given its size and population, Pakistan has had an inherent and sustained quest to balance India’s regional influence. The policy has become emblematic of the country’s decision-making framework as every issue is approached only from this aspect. For achieving this, therefore, Pakistan has sought various kinds of support, and importantly, military support from both the US and China.

Beijing investment

It is pertinent to mention that with the US downgrading Pakistan in its foreign relations priority list, China has stepped in to provide Pakistan with advanced military weaponry. Beijing has also been the biggest source of investment for Pakistan despite the political instability and deteriorating security situation. As such, Pakistan’s political and security elite have persistently banked on China, and more often prefer Beijing for their maiden diplomatic visit.

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China’s lending to Pakistan is viewed by the US Department of State as only benefitting Chinese companies and resulting in mounting debt for Pakistan. Such criticism, however, has persistently been rebutted by both countries. With Washington getting closer to New Delhi on multiple fronts, the prospects of closer military cooperation between China and Pakistan are stronger.

Building on a long history of previous China-Pakistan cooperation, CPEC, conceived in 2013, involves large-scale development of rail, road, and port infrastructure. Crucially, development in Balochistan remains the central part of the CPEC infrastructural development and, as such, is considered a game-changer by Pakistan.

Slow progress in CPEC works

However, despite the passing of more than a decade, the performance of the CPEC projects, especially in the Balochistan region, is not up to the mark. The underwhelming performance of CPEC can be attributed to periodic attacks by insurgents operating in the region, and there are also internal debates in Pakistan about the project and its benefits.

The government’s failure to meet the needs of Chinese companies, and bureaucratic inefficiencies combined with political instability, have all played a role in the slow pace of progress in CPEC work. When Imran Khan was Prime Minister, he slowed the progress of various projects, irking the Chinese.

Although Pakistan is likely to continue with its pro-China tilt regardless of who forms the government, security issues have overtaken everything else now. In a recent statement, Chinese Ambassador Jiang Ziadong maintained that security threats are the factor behind the slow progress of CPEC.

However, the option of joint security, as emphasised by Beijing, may not be the solution.

First, there appears to be no clarity on the role of Chinese personnel in Pakistan, if joint security is implemented. Another question is: what happens if attacks against Chinese troops and Pakistani soldiers increase? Will the Chinese also participate in combat operations?

So far, Pakistan has not agreed to China’s suggestion of collaborative security arrangements. At the same time, it would be interesting to watch how Pakistan deals with growing security-related problems, which, if not resolved soon, may eventually force China to play a more intrusive role in the country, and that will have a profound impact on Pakistan’s sovereignty and authority.

Pakistan’s ties with US

Islamabad’s relationship with Washington has historically witnessed phases of close-knit relations. There have been times, however, when Islamabad had to face US wrath over one issue or the other. The US first sanctioned Pakistan in the 1960s. More punitive sanctions were imposed in 1990s. In December 2024, Washington imposed sanctions on various Pakistani companies involved in making ballistic missiles.

Pakistan’s importance for the US has been marked by the ebb and flow of Washington’s evolving interests in South Asia. While sharing long-standing military ties and investments with the US, Pakistan has simultaneously cultivated strong ties with China, much of it shaped by mutual enmity towards India.

US-Pakistan ties have deteriorated since the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. However, the military has long-standing ties with the US establishment and, therefore, it has tried to create a balance with China and the US. On its part, China is unhappy with Pakistan’s attempts to mend ties with the US.

Striking a balance

Thus, with both China and US trying hard to strengthen their influence in Asia, it is going to be an uphill task for Pakistan to balance ties with both powers. Although Pakistan received significant economic and military aid from the US since the events of September 9, 2001, leaks of classified documents in 2023 showed that strong voices were emerging within the country’s foreign ministry, arguing for the government to put a stop to pleasing Washington and start tilting towards China.

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However, with the re-election of Donald Trump as President, US-China rivalry is set to intensify, and Pakistan would not be a priority for Trump. At the same time, the US would not wish Pakistan to come under the complete control of China.

It would also be interesting to see how Pakistan uses China’s good offices to pressure the Taliban government in Afghanistan to rein in the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan militants, who have lately joined the BLA in its fight against the Pakistan state.

With Trump’s return to the White House and the US-China conflict set to intensify, it would be prudent for Islamabad to maintain good relations with both major powers. Islamabad has historically benefitted from close cooperation with Washington and Beijing and it will stand to loss significantly if a short-sighted vision dominates its foreign policy trajectory.

Muneeb Yousuf is a researcher based in New Delhi.