By placing the September 1960 Indus Waters Treaty “in abeyance” till Pakistan “credibly and irrevocably” abjures support for cross-border terrorism, India has effectively placed the Treaty in a state of suspended animation.
Speaking at a late-night briefing on April 23, Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri did not use the words “withdraw” from the Treaty or “abrogate” on account of the legal consequences these might carry, but preferred the phrase “in abeyance”. The Indian announcement (Misri took no questions) came a day after 26 persons, a vast majority of them Hindu tourists from different parts of the country, were brutally shot dead in a terrorist strike in a Pahalgam meadow, just as the tourist season got underway in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K).
The Foreign Secretary also announced the closure of the Attari border and the reduction of staff in the Indian High Commission in Islamabad and the Pakistani High Commission in New Delhi to 30 and the expulsion of all three military advisers. On its part, Pakistan closed the Wagah border on April 24 and reduced staff members to 30 too.
Under the Treaty between India, Pakistan and the Word Bank, Pakistan has exclusive use of the western rivers—Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum while India has the full use of the eastern rivers—the Sutlej, Beas, and Ravi. The Treaty, the only one of its kind between an upper (India) and lower (Pakistan) riparian, signed by Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru, Field Marshal Ayub Khan and a World Bank representative in Karachi on September 19, 1960, is almost impossible to abrogate if the letter and spirit of the agreement is adhered to.
Article XII (4) of the Treaty lays down: “The provisions of this Treaty, or the provisions of this Treaty as modified under the provisions of Paragraph (3), shall continue in force until terminated by a duly ratified treaty [emphasis mine] concluded for that purpose between the two Governments.”
Consequently, the Indian announcement has chosen to use the phrase “in abeyance” till Pakistan ends support to cross-border terrorist activity—something that is as open-ended as it is indefinite. It is Delhi that will decide whether Islamabad’s actions in this domain are both “credible and irrevocable”. In effect, the Treaty is now in limbo. It’s not as if the tap can be shut off tomorrow—there are no storage dams on the Indian bits of the Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum rivers as of now. If (or till) India builds storage facilities or diverts water through a canal system on its territory, the water in these rivers will continue to flow into Pakistan.
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However, India has made it clear that the flow of the water no longer enjoys legal sanctity and Delhi was not legally bound to honour its commitments under a Treaty that has served the two countries well for nearly 65 years. For long, hawks in the Indian establishment, mostly retired diplomats and faujis, have debated and implored the government to withdraw from the Treaty. Such a view is far from new and has been considered an option ever since Narendra Modi took office as Prime Minister in 2014.
Perfect timing
The terrorist strike in Pahalgam, coupled with a conducive international climate, has provided India the perfect opportunity to put the Treaty in abeyance. With the United States and Europe backing Israel in its continuing genocide of the Palestinian people, defying all international laws, and Donald Trump shredding the international trade regime, New Delhi knows that it will get away with its action on the Indus Waters Treaty.
The United States is hitting Yemen with air strikes just as Israel (also) strikes Syria without any United Nations authorisation. During the invasion of Iraq by American and British troops in 2003, UN authorisation was a major issue, but today all that is history. Saudi Arabia had no compunctions in leading a “coalition” to conduct air strikes on Yemeni territory.
In January 2024, Iran and Pakistan engaged in cross-border strikes against ostensible terror targets on each other’s territory. Rawalpindi also launched air strikes against what it called Tehreek-e-Taliban (TTP) targets in December 2024. In 2023, Azerbaijan sent in troops to capture the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh.
It’s in such a conducive environment that the Modi action has effectively ended its obligation to continue with the Indus Waters Treaty without fear of international criticism. Some muted criticism or mumblings about the need to engage in dialogue and meet Treaty obligations is unlikely to bother New Delhi.
Putting the Treaty “in abeyance” was low-hanging fruit for the Modi government. By doing so, the Modi administration has sought to appear decisive at a time when its tall claims of having ended terrorism in Jammu & Kashmir have well and truly been punctured.
A former Indian diplomat, who has served in Pakistan, believes that the Treaty action has bought the Modi government time to calibrate its next steps against Pakistan. The diplomat is of the opinion that some kinetic action can be expected against targets in Pakistan.
Again, the Modi government believes that the international climate is in its favour to hit at targets in Pakistan. With Trump in power and his actions to deport legally resident Muslims from the U.S., the message to all countries, including India, is loud and clear.
Tactic of deflection
The announcement on the Treaty is also an effort to deflect attention from the Modi’s government failure to tackle terrorism in Jammu & Kashmir. An official release said on the 8th of April following a high-level meeting (minus Chief Minister Omar Abdullah) chaired by Home Minister Amit Shah in Srinagar: “Shri Shah said that due to sustained and coordinated efforts of the Modi Government, the entire terror eco-system nurtured by elements inimical to our country in Jammu and Kashmir has been crippled.”
Far from being crippled, the “entire terror eco-system” is thriving in Jammu & Kashmir as demonstrated not just by the Pahalgam strike, one of the most brutal terrorist killings ever in Jammu & Kashmir since insurgency began in 1988, but by the killing of seven persons working on a tunnel project at Gagangir in the Kashmir Valley, in October 2024.
The Modi government’s claim of ending terrorism in Jammu & Kashmir is a hollow one. Come election time, even Prime Minister Narendra Modi has not been shy of saying the “new India” enters homes to hit at its enemies – naya bharat ghar me ghus ke maarta hai. The fact remains that India’s most wanted terrorists: the Lashkar-e-Taiba’s Hafiz Saeed and Zaki-ur-Rahman Lakhvi and the Jaish-e-Muhammad’s Masood Azhar continue to live and operate in Pakistan.
Had Omar Abdullah been in charge of law and order in the Union Territory of Jammu & Kashmir and not Lieutenant Governor Manoj Sinha and his superiors at the Home Ministry, there is little doubt that April 22 could well have been his last day in office as Chief Minister. The entire right-wing ecosystem would have been unleashed on Omar Abdullah and his team for their failure to manage the law and order situation. The Modi-Shah duo have done Omar Abdullah a favour by depriving him of the charge of law and order.
There are no press opportunities to ask Sinha-Shah-Modi about the absolute security failure that marked the Pahalgam meadow strike. The lack of accountability is galling. Those who saw and suffered the depredations of the terrorists are asking how come not a single policeman was present when some 2,000 tourists gathered at Baisaran, the popular tourist spot in Pahalgam.
From all accounts in the mainstream media and social media, it appears that the people of Pahalgam and the Valley have risen as one to condemn the terrorist action. Apart from a hartal in the Valley against the attack, an all-party meeting in Srinagar said: “Such cowardly acts of brutality…are a direct attack on the values of Kashmiriyat and the idea of India…”
In Pakistan, the official response has been on expected lines. Following a meeting of the country’s National Security Committee chaired by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on April 24, an official statement said, “Any attempt to stop or divert the flow of water belonging to Pakistan as per the Indus Waters Treaty, and the usurpation of the rights of lower riparian will be considered as an act of war and responded with full force across the complete spectrum of national power.”
In a tit-for-tat action, familiar to those who follow India-Pakistan relations, the statement added: “Noting the reckless and irresponsible behaviour of India… Pakistan shall exercise the right to hold all bilateral agreements with India including but not limited to [the] Simla Agreement in abeyance, till India desists from its manifested behaviour of fomenting terrorism inside Pakistan; trans-national killings; and non-adherence to international law and UN Resolutions on Kashmir.”
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Implicit in a possible Pakistani response is the use of the “complete spectrum of national power”, or the use of nuclear weapons, something that Pakistan has threatened time and again when dealing with India at times of stress and tension. India should not treat these threats lightly.
As the Modi government ponders its next move, it would do well to keep in mind the Pakistani response to the Balakot missile strike in February 2019 following the killing of 40 CRPF personnel in Pulwama in Kashmir. On February 26 2019, India launched its missile strike against terrorist targets in Balakot and the very next day, Pakistan responded with air strikes across the Line of Control, leading to a dogfight during which an Indian MiG 21 aircraft was shot down. India, in turn, claimed that a Pakistani F-16 aircraft was downed.
In August 2019, after the abrogation of Article 370, Pakistan expelled India’s High Commissioner and suspended all trade relations. There has been a back-channel going, but little sign of a front-channel being restored. Post-Pahalgam, both militaries will be on alert at the Line of Control and the international border. It remains to be seen what “kinetic action” India might undertake and how Pakistan will respond. The shadow of conflict once again hangs over the two countries.
With Trump involved in his tariff wars of his own making, it remains to be seen if Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates—friends of Pakistan and Prime Minister Narendra Modi—can influence the actions of India and Pakistan.
Amit Baruah was The Hindu’s Islamabad-based Pakistan correspondent from 1997 to 2000. He is the author of Dateline Islamabad.
Source:https://frontline.thehindu.com/politics/indus-waters-treaty-india-pakistan-pahalgam-terror-attack-2025/article69489461.ece