From Newfoundland to British Columbia, the 45th general election is shaping up to be a nail-biter, with close races, dramatic turnarounds, and political futures hanging in the balance.
The first polls to close in Newfoundland could offer an early indication of the night’s trajectory.
Central Newfoundland, a riding decided by a mere 281 votes in the last election, is once again a toss-up.
Liberal candidate Lynette Powell, a family physician and educator, hopes to flip the riding back to red, a feat that would signal a potential Liberal resurgence across Atlantic Canada. “If Central Newfoundland flips back to the Liberals, it could be a sign of more to come across Atlantic Canada,” an Abacus Data poll suggests, highlighting the riding’s significance.In New Brunswick’s Miramichi—Grand Lake, another swing riding, the Conservatives are reeling from the resignation of their candidate, Jake Stewart, amidst allegations of misconduct.
“A toss-up riding that could favour the Liberals once more,” is how local pundits are describing the race, as the Liberals seek to capitalize on the Conservatives’ misfortune.
Quebec’s Trois-Rivières presents a rare three-way contest, with the Bloc Québécois, Conservatives, and Liberals all vying for victory.
“No Liberal government, let alone a majority is possible without the party getting a substantial number of Quebec’s 78 seats,” a Liberal strategist acknowledged, underscoring the riding’s importance.
Bloc Leader Yves-François Blanchet, sensing an opportunity, has urged supporters to return to his party, arguing that a Carney victory is all but assured.
The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) is also a battleground, with newly formed ridings like Milton East—Halton Hills South and Markham Unionville attracting national attention.
“With no incumbent and an entirely new map, the riding is difficult to predict,” a local analyst noted, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding these races.
In Windsor West, the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war looms large, with thousands of auto workers facing layoffs.
“The tariffs Trump has imposed on the Canadian auto industry hit first in Windsor,” a union representative lamented, emphasizing the riding’s economic vulnerability.
British Columbia’s Abbotsford—South Langley is another riding to watch, where a Conservative nomination controversy has created an opening for the Liberals.
“Ed Fast, the retiring Conservative incumbent in the area, hasn’t helped matters by endorsing de Jong and sharply criticizing his party for ‘allowing faceless party officials’ to parachute in candidates,” a local newspaper reported, highlighting the internal strife.
In Saskatchewan’s Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River, the Liberals are hoping to break their provincial shutout streak.
“All three parties have held the seat at one point over the last two decades,” a local historian noted, underscoring the riding’s volatility.
Edmonton Southeast features a high-profile rematch, with former Liberal minister Amarjeet Sohi seeking to reclaim his seat.
“Sohi is running against lawyer and Conservative newcomer Jagsharan Singh Mahal,” a campaign staffer explained, highlighting the riding’s competitive nature.
Finally, the leaders’ own ridings are also under scrutiny.
“The toughest battle for a major party leader is likely in Singh’s British Columbia riding Burnaby Central,” a political commentator observed, noting the NDP’s national decline.
In Nepean, Mark Carney faces a tough challenge from Conservative Barbara Bal.
“The Liberals held the riding before the election, but disqualified the sitting MP Chandra Arya from running again for reasons that were never announced,” a local news outlet reported, highlighting the riding’s unusual circumstances.