Tourism Shattered: How the Pahalgam Attack Crippled Kashmir’s Fragile Economic Revival

For over six years, Mohammed Mohsin*, 27, had wanted to resurrect his family’s aging hotel in the picturesque hill town of Pahalgam in Southern Kashmir. The old structure—set against a backdrop of lush pine trees, with the raging waters of River Lidder gushing ahead and the snow-capped Himalayan peaks in the distance—had worn down with time, and the business struggled to bring in profits.

This year, Mohsin finally decided to act. Though reviving the old structure felt like a daunting task, the surge in tourist footfall across Kashmir since 2023 gave him a rare sense of optimism. He took a risk: He borrowed money from lenders, sold off family gold and poured most of his savings into the business.

When the resurrected hotel finally opened in the middle of April, everything seemed to have fallen into place. Domestic tourist bookings were coming in, the rooms were full, and for the first time in years, the business seemed to have a future.

That was until April 22, the day of the Pahalgam attack.

Roughly 4 km from Mohsin’s hotel, armed militants unleashed carnage in a meadow—Baisaran Valley—often dubbed “mini-Switzerland”. They approached civilians, ascertained their religion, and massacred 26 men in a hail of gunfire. Most of the victims were identified as Hindu tourists, with the exception of one Kashmiri Muslim labourer.

Now, Pahalgam has fallen silent. Black clouds hang low over the valley, and a sombre chill rides the wind. Hotels are empty, restaurants remain shut, shops barely see a customer, and hundreds of vehicles sit idle at the two main taxi stands. Business owners, who just days ago were overwhelmed with work, sit quietly on footpaths, ruing what locals are already calling “bloody Tuesday”. The mesmerising town is now catatonic.

“When I first started, I didn’t get enough time to even speak to my family on the phone; such was the tourist rush”, Mohsin told Frontline. But after the attack, he had no choice but to send most of his staff home and shut down the hotel.

“Till the morning of April 22, I had bookings for all my rooms, right through June”, Mohsin recalled. “Now, I don’t have a single one. I’ve already laid off six of my 10 staff”. With his hotel empty overnight and all his bookings cancelled, Mohsin now has little hope left.

“This is the time when the tourist season begins. But with the attack, it ended before it even had a chance to take off. I’ve invested nearly 20 lakhs in this hotel. I sold what little my family owned to make this work. How do I recover it?” he said. The season is gone, and so are his savings. “How do I repay lenders? Like Kashmir, I’m ruined”, Mohsin told Frontline.

Tourism ≠ Normalcy

The attack in Pahalgam didn’t just take 26 civilian lives but also struck viciously at the core of one of Kashmir’s most promising industries that has already slowed to a trickle: Tourism. For a region like Kashmir, New Delhi had decoded “rising tourist footfall” as one of the major signs of “normalcy”.

After the political shock of abrogation of the region’s semi-autonomous status in 2019, followed by the circumscribing pandemic lockdowns, tourism, like other sectors, was slowly finding its rhythm again. In the last three years, the sector, which remains one of Kashmir’s major economic drivers (one that also acts as a fragile barometer of peace for Delhi), had started to grow and was expected to expand at a faster pace this year.

According to official data, the total tourist footfall in 2024 was approximately 2.95 million, a notable rise from 2.71 million visitors in 2023 and 2.67 million in 2022. In fact, this year, in just the first three months, over half a million tourists had already visited the region. As the tourism industry offered steady and promising returns, a large number of people joined the sector in recent years.

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Tourists mostly stay in hotels; dine at local restaurants; hire guides, pony ride operators, local cabs, and shop for Kashmir art and other handcrafted goods: This directly supports thousands of people across the region.

In all major tourist destinations in Kashmir, which Frontline travelled to, taxi drivers waited at empty stands, tour guides had cancelled itineraries, hotel rooms lay vacant, and restaurant tables were empty. From local artisans to shopkeepers, all those who rely on tourism for their livelihood, are now facing days of inactivity, which they fear may prolong into months of economic uncertainty.

Kashmir’s tourism ecosystem is large and diverse with more than 1,000 houseboats, over 4,000 hotels, and many taxi drivers, tour guides, pony ride operators, and handicraft sellers who all mostly rely on the domestic visitors. Many had invested in the sector believing in the promise of a good season.

“The fallout of the attack is beyond anything we could’ve imagined”, said Syed Bashir, a Srinagar resident who sells Kashmiri handicrafts and rents shops in Pahalgam and Srinagar every tourist season. “For us, the season is already over. Why would anyone spend their money to visit a place from where they can’t be sure if they will return?” In his 12 years in the trade, Bashir said he has weathered many difficult seasons but nothing like this. For the first time, he fears the industry may not bounce back anytime soon. This attack, he said, was different given how tourists were gunned down, something that has never happened before. He also believes the timing of the attack was no coincidence.

“This is the time when most small traders take goods worth lakhs on credit”, Bashir told Frontline, pointing to the empty market of Pahalgam. “We count on the tourist season to sell, earn, and pay back what we owe. I took items worth at least Rs.8 lakh, believing I would make twice that amount. Now, everything is locked inside shops. I still have to repay my debt, pay rent for the shops and there’s no income. Nothing”, said Bashir. “Honestly, I don’t think I’ll ever recover from this”.

Kashmir’s tourism sector accounts for at least 8 per cent of the Union Territory’s GDP. As per the Jammu and Kashmir’s economic survey of 2024-25, the region’s GSDP (Gross State Domestic Product) had grown 7.06 per cent in 2024-25 and 7.08 per cent in 2023-24.

In fact, the UT government had come out with a comprehensive tourism policy in 2020, which aimed at generating employment for approximately 50,000 people each year and attracting an average investment target of Rs.2,000 crore per year for the next five years.

In the first Budget speech of the UT, Chief Minister Omar Abdullah said that his government’s goal was to “increase tourism’s contribution to the GSDP from 7 per cent to at least 15 per cent over the next four to five years.”

But since the Pahalgam attack, at least 13 lakh bookings scheduled through August have been cancelled across the Kashmir valley, according to Babar Chaudhary, president of the Jammu and Kashmir Hotels and Restaurants Association, which represents around 240 hotels and restaurants. “From April to August, over 25 lakh tourists usually visit Kashmir. This year, at least 90 per cent of them won’t come because of the fear”.

According to a survey conducted by community social media platform LocalCircles, six out of 10 families with travel plans to the Kashmir Valley this year have decided to cancel their bookings following the attack. The survey also revealed that among 6,807 respondents who had planned trips to Kashmir between May and December this year, 62 percent have already decided to cancel their vacations.

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According to Farooq Ahmed Kuthoo, former president and member of The Travel Agents Association of Kashmir, one of the region’s largest associations, the attack will have far-reaching consequences for the industry. “It will be hard to convince people to visit Kashmir now”, Kuthoo told Frontline. “The knee-jerk response is that Kashmir is not safe”.

The ancillary sectors, including the transport business, are feeling the pressure too. “Since the attack, 30 per cent of our bookings have been cancelled”, said Shabir Ahmed Basmati, president of the J&K Radio Taxi Association, which operates 120 cabs across Kashmir. “We’re bracing for more cancellations in the coming days”.

However, the chief minister told reporters after a meeting with tourism stakeholders: “We are not worried about the financial implications of the attack at this point of time.”

Trust shattered

When “social activists” hoisted the Indian tricolor atop the Ghanta Ghar (Clock Tower) in Srinagar on the Republic Day in 2022, guarded by a large contingent of men in uniform, it was hailed as a symbol of India’s victory in quelling separatism in the Valley. Before that, Ghanta Ghar had been a focal point of political tension and would often shut down in response to calls for strikes by separatist groups.

After 2019, Lal Chowk, where the Clock Tower stands, emerged as a major tourist hotspot. Almost everyday tourists would visit, take photos of the iconic structure with security personnel by its side.

Since abrogation of Article 370 in 2019, New Delhi has placed a significant emphasis on drawing tourists to the region, seeing it as a way to demonstrate “normalcy” in Kashmir. However, observers believe that quantifying peace through tourism numbers and not local voices was Delhi’s failure.

“The government has instilled confidence in tourists to visit Kashmir. However, when these innocent people become targets of attacks, which the government had said [had stopped] it becomes a huge embarrassment for Delhi”, said an observer, who requested anonymity. “The trust between tourists and Delhi is shattered. If peace and normalcy truly existed, tourists would be safe”. The government has essentially put a lot of focus on tourism by creating new infrastructure. “But, if tourists still don’t feel safe, what value does that infrastructure have?” he wondered.

The true challenge for Delhi now goes beyond merely bringing tourists back; it lies in restoring genuine normalcy and establishing peace at the core of Kashmir.

Zaid Bin Shabir is a journalist based in Srinagar.