If someone asks you about the common thread among the iPhone, Google Search, and Facebook, it’s that all three have changed the tech landscape, and have lasted far longer than the average product. The iPhone debuted in 2007, Google in 1998, and Facebook in 2004. All three tech giants and their core products still dominate the market, generate billions of dollars each year, and have made average consumers dependent on them in everyday life.
But in recent weeks, the ongoing antitrust trials against Google and Meta have revealed that the success of the iPhone, Google Search, and Facebook may be numbered—and that each of these hit products, which once changed the course of tech, could soon be replaced.
Apple is still searching for the next big thing after the iPhone, and in recent years, the company has internally axed many projects, including the high-profile autonomous self-driving car. (Image credit: Anuj Bhatia/Indian Express)
Truth be told, Facebook is no longer used by the cool, trendy younger demographic, the iPhone feels mature, the pace of innovation has slowed, and Google Search is in decline while AI chatbots like ChatGPT and Google’s own Gemini continue to grow.
‘Incumbents have a hard time’
Eddy Cue, Senior Vice President, Services, Apple, said last week that the iPhone could follow the same path as the iPod within the next 10 years. Apple is one of the few tech companies that typically avoids making forward-looking statements, but seeing Cue admit that the iPhone won’t be around forever is a clear sign that Cupertino is already thinking beyond its most profitable product, which generates more than half of its revenue.
The original iPhone started the mobile revolution, bringing Google Search and Facebook to millions of users. (Image credit: Anuj Bhatia/Indian Express)
What might replace the iPhone remains unknown — a mixed-reality headset, a pair of smart glasses, or perhaps a touchscreen-less gadget. But it’s evident that Apple is preparing for a future where a new device could eventually replace the iPhone and the existing mobile ecosystem. Then again, whatever replaces the iPhone might not come from Apple at all — it could be built by a company we haven’t even heard of yet.
“Incumbents have a hard time… we’re not an oil company, we’re not toothpaste — these are things that are going to last forever… you may not need an iPhone 10 years from now,” Cue said while testifying in the Google vs Department of Justice antitrust case, according to Bloomberg.
Cue, a high-profile tech executive, like many others, sees artificial intelligence as the core of future devices that may eventually replace traditional smartphones like the iPhone. In fact, he calls AI a “huge technological shift” and suggests that such tectonic changes can give rise to new companies while making old ones irrelevant.
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The iPhone may be selling well but it’s no longer innovative. (Image credit: Anuj Bhatia/Indian Express)
“When I got to Silicon Valley,” he said, “all the best companies or the most successful companies” — mentioning HP, Sun Microsystems, and Intel — “either don’t exist today or are significantly smaller and much less impactful.”
Cue didn’t mean that the iPhone is going away right now — not at all. Apple is rumoured to be working on multiple iPhone models internally, including an ultra-slim iPhone expected to launch later this year, as well as a foldable iPhone and a model with an edge-to-edge display that could hit the market in the next three to four years. However, one cannot deny that the iPhone is built on ageing technology. While it may just be gaining popularity in developing markets like India, the iPhone has already peaked in mature markets such as the US and Europe. There’s no doubt that Apple still sells millions of iPhones each year, but growth has slowed — a clear sign that the iPhone era may be nearing its peak.
Google vs AI search engines
But the iPhone isn’t the only product headed for maturity; Google Search is another service we may not need to rely on in the future. The reason? The increasing adoption of OpenAI’s ChatGPT, Google Gemini, and Perplexity.
Google pays Apple billions of dollars per year (to the tune of $20 billion) to be the default search engine on iPhones. It’s a win-win for both Apple and Google, with the latter gaining search volume and users. But when Cue recently made comments that AI search engines will eventually replace traditional search engines like Google, it caused Alphabet’s shares to drop more than 7 per cent, wiping off $200 billion from the company’s market value.
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AI Chatbots such as ChatGPT,Gemini, and Perplexity continue to see increasing engament, signalling change in consumer behaviour. (Express Image)
Google Search is still the default way people search the Internet, powered by its proprietary ‘Knowledge Graph’ database — and there is currently no true alternative to it. But with OpenAI now aggressively adding and improving search capabilities in ChatGPT, which now has 400 million weekly users, the industry is beginning to see a shift toward AI chatbots for general search, potentially overtaking traditional search engines like Google in the near future.
Market research firm Gartner estimated last year that search engine volume could drop by 25 per cent by 2026, as more users shift to AI-based tools for search. Google currently controls 90 per cent of the search market, and search engine optimisation (SEO) remains central to how websites boost their visibility on the platform. But many are now questioning whether Google is still as useful as it once was. Ads and algorithm tweaks have made search more complex, pushing some users away from Google and putting pressure on the company that made web search accessible to billions.
Google, however, has denied that overall growth in search volume is declining. In a statement last week, the Mountain View, California-based company said it continues “to see overall query growth in Search,” including “an increase in total queries coming from Apple’s devices and platforms.” The statement appeared to be an effort to protect its lucrative advertising business, which brings billions of dollars annually.
Zuckerberg’s admission
Meta (formerly Facebook) is also at a crossroads due to the declining popularity of Facebook, the social network created by Mark Zuckerberg, which is now facing an external crisis fuelled by the global rise of TikTok and Meta’s own Instagram.
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Facebook is no longer seen as a social network for young users.
“The amount that people are sharing with friends on Facebook, especially, has been declining,” Zuckerberg said in April during an antitrust lawsuit brought by the Federal Trade Commission. “Even the amount of new friends that people add … I think has been declining. But I don’t know the exact numbers.”
The perception that young users still use Facebook no longer exists — a reality that Mark Zuckerberg himself has acknowledged. But the question remains: if not Facebook, where are users flocking to? The answer is TikTok and Instagram. Ironically, TikTok is not a traditional social network; it’s an app, which has taken the world by storm, which hosts short-form user videos and is owned by the Chinese company ByteDance.
Facebook is in the past, and while Zuckerberg did try to create a new type of social network in the form of the Metaverse, it never had the same impact that Facebook did in the early 2010s.
Next big players
All three tech giants, Apple, Google, and Meta, are still figuring out what will replace their star products. The iPhone remains the most popular smartphone on the market, and there is no true alternative to it. Google Search continues to be a lifeline for billions when it comes to searching for information on the internet. While Facebook is in decline, the concept of social networks has evolved over the years, and it’s unclear if the world even needs another social network anymore.
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Apple’s Vision Pro headset has been poorly received by consumers. (Image credit: Anuj Bhatia/Indian Express)
The shift is already happening, as OpenAI and Nvidia are becoming the next big players in the tech space, potentially changing the tech landscape in the same way Apple, Google, and Meta once did. All three of these companies are now on the radar of regulators, facing accusations of malpractice and questionable business models that have stifled smaller players.
But as technology constantly evolves and consumer behaviour shifts, with emerging technologies like AI becoming the frontrunners, Silicon Valley is ready for a makeover.