ICICI Bank Q4 Preview: PAT may jump up to 15% YoY on robust loan growth; NII growth seen at 7-11%

India’s second-largest private lender, ICICI Bank, could report a double-digit growth in its March quarter net profit, according to estimates by four brokerages. The bottomline range is seen between Rs 11,822 crore and Rs 12,350 crore, which could be a 10-15% uptick on a year-on-year basis.

Lender’s net interest income (NII), which is a difference between the interest earned and expended during the quarter, may rise by 7.6-11% over the corresponding quarter of the last financial year. The range could be Rs 20,543 crore and Rs 21,170 crore.

Estimates by ElaraCapital, JM Financial, IIFL Capital and Nuvama Institutional Equities have been taken into account.

While Elara remains most conservative in its PAT estimates, Nuvama remains most bullish. As for the NII metric, JM has the lowest estimates while IIFL pegs the highest figures.

The net interest margins could see some pressure on a YoY basis while slippages may also see sharp increase.ICICI Bank is expected to report double-digit YoY growth in its loan book.It will announce its Q4FY25 earnings on Saturday, April 19, 2025.

This is what brokerages recommend:

ElaraCapital

Elara expects ICICI Bank’s Q4FY24 PAT growth at 10.4% YoY to Rs 11,822 crore, while at 0.3% on a sequential basis. The NII is seen to increase by 9.5% on a YoY basis to Rs 20,902 crore while rising by 2.6% on the QoQ basis.

The Pre-Provision Operating Profit (PPoP) is likely to stand at Rs 16,899 crore, which is a likely growth of 12.4% YoY and flat on the sequential basis.

The second largest private lender’s loan book could expand by 14.3% YoY to Rs 13,53,800 crore in the January-March quarter while witnessing a 3% QoQ growth. Meanwhile, the deposits growth is seen at 11.4% YoY and 3.5% QoQ to Rs 15,73,500 crore at the end of the quarter under review.

However, the NIMs could see some pressure in Q4FY25, contracting by 13 basis points YoY to 4.3%, though there was a 2 basis point improvement sequentially.

Asset quality measured as the gross non-performing assets (GNPA) ratio may decline 19 basis points YoY to 2% while the ratio could edge up marginally by 1 basis point on a sequential basis.

Credit cost remained low at 0.3%, though it increased by 8 basis points YoY while going down 5 basis points compared to the previous quarter.

In its preview note Elara said that Q4 was yet another steady quarter for ICICI Bank, with steady loan growth and deposit growth.

“Expect broadly steady NIM, largely benefitting from CRR cut impact and lower slippages QoQ. That said, monitor the higher impact in Q1FY26. Q4 generally sees higher opex and we expect a similar trend this quarter. Slippages are likely to moderate QoQ. This with steady recovery would feed into lower NPLs and lower credit cost,” the brokerage note said.

JM Financial

According to estimates given by JM Financial, the private sector lender will likely report a net profit of Rs 11,959 crore, marking a 11.7% YoY and 1.4% QoQ rise. The NII is expected to come in at Rs 20,543 crore, which could be up 7.6% YoY and 0.8% QoQ.

The PPoP is projected to grow 13.7% YoY to Rs 17,103 crore. On a sequential basis, a 1.3% uptick is seen.

The lender’s loan book is estimated to grow 14.6% YoY while deposits are seen rising by 13% YoY.

JM has a ‘Buy’ rating with a target price of Rs 1,500.

IIFL Capital

The private sector lender is estimated to report a 13% YoY and 3% sequential rise in its January-March quarter net profit at Rs 12,140 crore. NII is seen rising 11% YoY to Rs 21,170 crore while growing by 4% on a QoQ basis.

PPoP is expected at Rs 17,410 crore, reflecting a 16% YoY and 3% QoQ growth, indicating operating efficiency and well-managed cost structures.

However, the bank’s provisioning costs are likely to rise sharply by 70% YoY to Rs 1,220 crore, though slightly lower than the previous quarter, down 1% QoQ.

The lender’s loan book may grow by 14% YoY and 3% QoQ to Rs 13.52 lakh crore, while deposits may rise 11% YoY and 4% QoQ to Rs 15.75 lakh crore.

IIFL has a ‘Buy’ rating on ICICI Bank for a target price of Rs 1,540.

Nuvama

The company is expected to report a strong quarterly performance with its PAT rising to Rs 12,350 crore, marking a 15.4% YoY increase and a 4.7% growth sequentially. The NII could be reported at Rs 20,840 crore, a likely uptick of 9.1% YoY and 2.3% QoQ.

The Net Interest Margin (NIMs) is seen around 4.27%, reflecting a decline of 13 basis points on a YoY basis but a modest improvement of 2 bp sequentially.

The PPoP is expected to remain healthy at Rs 17,730 crore, growing 17.9% YoY and 5% QoQ.

The loan book could expand to Rs 13,53,800 crore, registering a robust 14.3% YoY and 3% QoQ growth. As for deposits, a steady traction is expected, rising to Rs 15,61,400 crore. This may be a jump of 10.5% YoY and 2.7% QoQ.

On the asset quality front, slippages for the quarter may stand at Rs 5,690 crore, which is 10.8% higher YoY but an improvement of 6.4% on a QoQ basis.

Nuvama has a ‘Buy’ rating on the counter.

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