ICICI Bank, Trent, SBI, and more: Axis Securities lists top largecap stock picks for April with up to 42% upside

The Indian equity markets experienced a rollercoaster ride over the past few months, with the Nifty 50 reaching an all-time high of 26,216 on September 26, 2024, before witnessing a steep correction of 16 percent until February 28, 2025. However, March 2025 saw a strong rebound of 6.3 percent. Axis Securities believes the current risk-reward balance favors domestic-facing sectors due to minimal impact from reciprocal taxes, while export-oriented sectors remain in a wait-and-watch mode.

Below are Axis Securities’ top large-cap picks for April.

ICICI Bank: Strong Fundamentals to Drive Growth

Axis Securities has set a target price of ₹1,500 for ICICI Bank, implying an upside of 11 percent. The brokerage expects the bank to maintain its strong performance, delivering a steady RoA of 2.2-2.3 percent and RoE of 17-18 percent. This outlook is supported by robust business growth, a stable credit-deposit ratio, a strengthening fee income profile, and controlled operating expenses. With pristine asset quality and adequate capitalization, ICICI Bank remains Axis Securities’ most preferred pick among banks.

For SBI, the brokerage has a target price of ₹1,025, suggesting a potential upside of 33 percent. Axis Securities believes the bank’s comfortable Loan-to-Deposit Ratio (LDR) enables it to accelerate credit growth, particularly in retail and SME segments, while also supporting Net Interest Margins (NIMs). The brokerage expects SBI to sustain an RoA of 1 percent in the medium term, backed by healthy segment-wise growth, a strong deposit franchise with a focus on CASA, a strengthening fee income profile, and well-managed operating expenses.

Varun Beverages: Strategic Expansion to Drive Growth

Axis Securities has a target of ₹710 for Varun Beverages, implying a 23 percent upside. The brokerage remains positive on the company due to key strategic initiatives, including the acquisition of BevCo in South Africa and the DRC, expansion of its snacks portfolio in Zimbabwe and Zambia, and an aggressive push to widen its rural distribution network. Additionally, the commissioning of new manufacturing facilities and the scaling-up of high-margin products such as the Sting energy drink are expected to drive long-term revenue and profitability. Axis Securities estimates revenue, EBITDA, and PAT to grow at a CAGR of 23 percent, 25 percent, and 33 percent over CY24-27E.

HDFC Bank: Improving NIMs and Asset Quality to Support Upside

With a target price of ₹2,150, Axis Securities sees an 18 percent upside for HDFC Bank. The brokerage highlights the bank’s ability to improve NIMs, maintain controlled operating expenses, and sustain pristine asset quality. These factors should help HDFC Bank achieve an RoA of 1.8-1.9 percent and an RoE of 14-15 percent over FY25-27E. Faster improvements in LDR and NIM expansion remain key re-rating factors for the stock.

Bharti Airtel: ARPU Growth and Rural Penetration Key Drivers

Axis Securities has a target price of ₹1,900 for Bharti Airtel, indicating a 10 percent upside. The brokerage notes that Airtel leads the industry in ARPU, currently at ₹245, compared to Reliance Jio’s ₹195. Growth is driven by an increasing migration from 2G to 4G/5G, rising adoption of value-added services, and deeper rural penetration. The company’s strong data consumption per user, currently at 24.5 GB/month, is expected to support revenue growth. Axis Securities maintains a bullish stance on Airtel due to its superior margins, subscriber expansion, and increasing 4G conversions.

Cholamandalam Investment & Finance: Sustained AUM Growth Outlook

For Cholamandalam Investment & Finance, Axis Securities has set a target price of ₹1,780, implying a 17 percent upside. The brokerage expects the NBFC to deliver strong AUM, NII, and earnings growth at a CAGR of 27 percent, 27 percent, and 28 percent, respectively, over FY25-27E. CIFC is expected to maintain a healthy RoA of 2.3-2.4 percent and RoE of 19-22 percent during this period, reinforcing its strong position in the sector.

Hero MotoCorp: EV and Rural Demand to Propel Growth

Axis Securities has a target price of ₹5,285 for Hero MotoCorp, suggesting a 42 percent upside. The brokerage is closely tracking Hero’s electric vehicle (EV) strategy, including investments in Ather, the ramp-up of VIDA V2, and the upcoming sub- ₹1 lakh VIDA V2 Lite model for mass markets. Additionally, expansion in the mid-weight motorcycle segment and new international markets are expected to drive growth. Government initiatives to enhance rural incomes and the ongoing marriage season could further boost demand, particularly in the entry-level and 125cc segments. Axis Securities estimates an 8 percent, 9 percent, and 9 percent CAGR in revenue, EBITDA, and PAT, respectively, over FY24-27E.

Trent: Strong Expansion Strategy to Drive Sales Growth

With a target price of ₹6,570, Axis Securities sees a 23 percent upside for Trent. The brokerage anticipates continued robust sales growth, driven by the retailer’s aggressive store expansion strategy and refreshed product assortments. The improving earnings profile across its business formats, turnaround at Star Bazaar, and rising traction at the Inditex JV are key positives. Additionally, Trent’s expansion into the UAE, the launch of Zudio Beauty, and its entry into the lucrative LGD jewelry segment are expected to be significant long-term growth catalysts.

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.