The US Rethink on Australia Submarines Is China’s Win

The White House’s review of the Aukus pact — a security arrangement between the US, UK and Australia — is rattling one of Washington’s closest alliances, and playing right into China’s hands. It sends yet another signal that America First might just mean everyone else alone.

First announced by former President Joe Biden in 2021, the multibillion-dollar deal commits Washington and London to help Canberra develop a fleet of nuclear-powered submarines over a 30-year period. It was designed to help counter Beijing’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific.

Donald Trump’s administration has just put those plans in limbo. The review will determine whether Aukus is “aligned with the president’s America First agenda,” the Defense Department said, adding that it’s also aimed at making sure allies contribute more to collective security and that the US’s defense industrial base can meet domestic needs. 

These are valid concerns. American submarine production has been plagued by persistent delays and ballooning costs. Elbridge Colby, a top policy adviser who is expected to play a central role in the study, has long warned that the US could end up short on submarines at a critical moment in its deterrence strategy against China. In particular, Colby is worried about a hypothetical conflict around Taiwan. 

This is yet another example of the White House’s pay-to-play approach to global partnerships, and how allies left out in the cold will have to navigate the new environment. “Regardless of how this review goes, Australia should be reducing its dependence on US weapons and technology,” Michael Shoebridge, founder and director of Strategic Analysis, a Canberra-based political consultancy, told me. “We are probably slower than others in realizing that America remains our most powerful partner, but we have to do more for ourselves.” 

European nations have already had a taste of what it means to be a US ally in Trump’s world. At the Munich Security Conference earlier this year, Vice President JD Vance chastised participants for not doing enough to bolster collective security.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth delivered a similar message to Asian partners at the Shangri-La conference, a regional security summit in Singapore. Countries like Australia, Japan, and South Korea have long relied on America as a security guarantor, but now Washington wants them to carry more of the load and increase military budgets. 

Meeting with Australia’s Defense Minister Richard Marles on the sidelines, Hegseth told him that Canberra needs to up its military spending target to 3.5% of GDP. Currently, Australia is on track for about 2.4% by the mid 2030s, and has already committed to additional investment. 

For Beijing, each move that reduces the Trump administration’s influence in the region is welcomed as a sign of disengagement. When Aukus was first announced, China expressed outrage at what it viewed as evidence of Washington’s attempts at containment. On Thursday, the foreign ministry repeated its resistance to the pact, adding that it opposes “anything that amplifies the risk of nuclear proliferation and exacerbates arms race.” A retooling of the treaty will reinforce the narrative Beijing has been pushing that the US is an untrustworthy partner.

In all likelihood, Aukus will survive, but perhaps not in its current form. Canberra may be forced to make compromises, and offer concessions to Washington, including raising its defense capabilities.

But even if the public rhetoric is one of long-term cooperation, Australia should begin weighing its options carefully. It could work more closely with other partners. In May, Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, raised the prospect of a formal defense agreement between the trading bloc and Australia. While in reality this would be challenging given the number of countries involved, partnerships like this are worth exploring and should be pursued. 

The country has already begun strengthening defense ties with Japan through reciprocal access agreements, and worked with India under the Quad framework on maritime security and military exercises. These steps offer a foundation for a more multipolar security strategy, one that doesn’t always lean so heavily on Washington’s shifting priorities.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is expected to meet Trump on Tuesday on the sidelines of the Group of Seven meeting in Canada, where they’re likely to tackle trade and defense spending. This is a golden opportunity to impress upon the American president the benefits of committing to Aukus — chief among them, maintaining American influence in the Indo-Pacific.

Whether the US leader reaffirms the pact or reshapes it, this review should serve as a wake-up call. For Australia, it’s a reminder that even the closest alliances are only as stable as the political moment that defines them.

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America will sell Australia between three and five Virginia-class, conventionally armed nuclear-powered submarines, with the first deliveries expected as soon as the early 2030s. In the longer term, Australia plans to build its own next-generation submarines in partnership with the UK, using American technology, to be completed in the 2040s.

This column reflects the personal views of the author and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

Karishma Vaswani is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Asia politics with a special focus on China. Previously, she was the BBC’s lead Asia presenter and worked for the BBC across Asia and South Asia for two decades.

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