As Canadian dreams wane, a rude awakening for Punjab’s immigration economy

Paying the fees of educational programmes is challenging, unless your family is rich, he realized. To pay for his diploma programme, his brotherworked at a pizza shop and at a South Indian restaurant. His sister, who was desperate to leave India now regrets it, because she hasn’t found a job yet.

Moreover, Canada’s immigration laws are changing. Early last year, the country announced major changes.

Citing an “unsustainable growth” in the number of international students coming to the country, which in turn put too much pressure on Canada’s housing, healthcare and other social services, Canada’s immigration ministry released a report saying it would cap the number of study permits it gave out, reducing them by 35% to 360,000 in 2024 versus the previous year.

In addition, the country placed restrictions on spousal visas: now, only Master’s and PhD students can bring their partners along. Another change Canada made is to grant work permits only to students obtaining technical diplomas, in fields like welding or diesel mechanics, for instance.

It will be much harder for aspiring immigrants without technical skills to get jobs, work permits and become permanent residents. A Bachelor’s degree and work experience are essential to finding a good, white-collar job, his brother tells Singh.

“So, I’ve decided to stay,” Singh said. He is now enrolled in a Bachelor’s degree programme, studying Commerce at Baba Farid University in Faridkot, Punjab.

Like Singh, there are thousands who are choosing to stay back. The souring of India and Canada’s geopolitical relationship since 2024 (more of this later) are also shaping their decisions. The result? A domino effect on the International English Language Testing System (IELTS) and immigration economy in Punjab–it’s now struggling to stay afloat.

The obsession

Across India, Punjabis are infamous for their desire to migrate abroad, especially to Canada. Of the various paths of migration, 40% of Punjabis pick the study visa route, according to a 2023 study conducted by Punjab Agricultural University, making it a particularly popular pathway.

To enrol in an educational programme in Canada, you need to prove your proficiency in English by taking the IELTS exam. In Punjab, a whole economy has formed to tutor students and help them with the visa application process.

If you go to any major town in the state, you will see a street full of IELTS centres, colloquially known as the “IELTSvaali galli.” Shops with names like ‘Kaka Immigration Centre’ and ‘Fateh Consultancy’ assure a visa and permanent residency to prospective customers.

It’s not just the Indian IELTS and immigration industry that this Canadian obsession sustains; the Punjab Agricultural University study also found that, on average, the study visa route costs about ₹18-25 lakh per person. In total, Indian international students contribute ₹68,000 crore to Canada each year, per a report by Khalsa Vox, a media portal on Punjab’s politics and culture.

Relations sour

While the going was mostly good for the ecosystem that supported this obsession, things started diving in 2024. Geopolitical relations between Canada and India soured.

In September 2024, former Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau publicly accused the Indian government of killing Khalistani activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar. India, on the other hand, blames Canada for turning a blind eye to the country’s residents allegedly funding terror acts in India. A diplomatic standoff ensued. A month later, Canada expelled Sanjay Kumar Verma, the Indian high commissioner to Canada, along with five other diplomats. India retaliated with six expulsions of its own.

Though India and Canada’s fight likely would not affect Canadian immigration policy, it could make Indians feel less welcome in Canada, said Stephen Green, a top immigration lawyer based in Toronto, Canada. He added that in his 40-year career, he’s seen many “ups and downs” in the immigration landscape but that this time, the Canadian “government [has] overreacted.” Green blames the country’s move on the general anti-immigrant “political environment”—not just in Canada but also in the Global North.

After decades of pro-globalization and pro-immigration policies in Global North countries like the US, Italy, Germany and Canada, there appears to be a rightward shift, with more nationalist and nativist policies.

Giorgia Meloni, Italy’s prime minister, has a “zero-tolerance” policy toward undocumented immigrants and wants Italians to boost their birth rate to reduce the need for migrant labour. Donald Trump wants to “deport the illegals,” who he claims are bringing crime and stealing American jobs. Just last week, a US air force plane landed in Amritsar, Punjab, with 104 undocumented Indian immigrants on board.

“What’s the easiest thing to do? Blame immigrants!” Green said.

The impact

Canada and India’s relationship, as well as Canadian immigration policies, matter to Indians. Most new permanent residents in Canada come from India. Most international students in Canada are also from India—specifically, India sends five times more students (384,965) to Canada than China (75,615), which is at number two, according toProject Atlas, a consultancy that studies student mobility.

Among Indian states, Canada’s policies have an outsized impact on Punjab, since a majority of Indian international students in Canada come from Punjab, said Neil Amber Judge, who researched the labour market experiences of Indian international students in Canada at Wilfred Laurier University in Waterloo, Ontario.

Most international students in Canada are from India—India sends five times more students to Canada than China, according to Project Atlas.

And it’s not just rich kids who go abroad to Canada; Punjabi youth of all backgrounds, from the wealthy to the poor, apply for study visas. With little to no financial support from home, poor and middle-class young people, like Dilveer’s siblings, prefer to enrol in relatively short diploma programmes over more expensive degree-granting ones. For instance, Dilveer Singh’s brother earned a diploma in accounting, and his sister is in the process of getting one in business and finance.

For such students, education is but an excuse. Their real goal is to get a work permit, a permanent residency and later, Canadian citizenship.

By restricting the number of work permits, Canada, in turn, has also reduced the likelihood of students becoming citizens in the country. Young Punjabi students, therefore, are becoming much less inclined to study in Canada. That’s had a huge impact on Punjab’s IELTS and immigration economy, with many centres shutting down or losing business in the past year.

According to the Association of Consultants for Overseas Studies, an industry body, 1.4-1.5 million students took the IELTS exam in 2023; the number dropped drastically to 200,000-300,000 in 2024. A year ago, there were about 11,000 registered IELTS centres in Punjab. Only 6,000 of them survive today.

In Muktsar, most IELTS centres and immigration consultancies are concentrated in the 30-footgalli. In the past year, many have closed shop. Instead of flashy signs promising you an idealized life in the West, ‘TO-LET’ signs, signalling closed centres, now line the galli.

Where Mandeep Singh’s Learning Highway used to teach about 40 students each year, now that number is stuck at 10 students. Prag Garg’s consultancy also saw a 70-80% loss of business. “Earlier, we would work with 10 students in this season, now there’s only one or two,” said Garg.

The price of land in the area has fallen sharply too–from ₹8 lakh per foot, it’s now ₹5 lakh, said Prag Garg, owner of Gray Jay Education and Immigration Services.

Sanjeev Dureja, aka Goldy, a Muktsar-based real estate agent and property dealer confirmed that figure. “And, despite that fall, it’s virtually impossible to find a buyer for the area,” Dureja said.

Even in the state’s capital, Chandigarh, IELTS centres and immigration consultancies are struggling. “Our business has fallen by 70%,” said Seema Chauhan, director of the Chandigarh-based International IELTS Center. Chauhan started her centre in 2018 when the business “was flourishing.” Even when the covid-19 pandemic hit, they “were able to manage everything.” But the recent changes have been really “shocking”,said Chauhan. “There’s a fear looming.”

Our business has fallen by 70%. The recent changes have been really shocking.
—Seema Chauhan

Previously, the IELTS industry was an important job creator, she said, adding that these centres would hire counsellors and teachers all the time. But, now, even though she receives dozens of resumés and calls from educated people every second day, including from people with PhDs, she’s unable to employ them.

Since 2017, 134 IELTS centres registered themselves in Muktsar, per a representative of the labour department. Though the city doesn’t record data of centre closures, Dureja, the real estate agent quoted above, said that “70% (of the 134) have likely lost business and closed.”

A blessing in disguise?

Canada’s loss appears to be Punjab’s gain.

Several Punjabi students enrolled themselves in local colleges this year, rather than studying for the IELTS exam right after their 12th grade. The state’s universities saw a steep increase in the number of admissions, with over 90% cut-offs for some programmes,The Print reported in September 2024.

“You know, for the past five years, we had been struggling to fill our seats, so we would invite students from Bihar, Kerala and Kashmir. But this time we got so many applications from Punjabi students, we didn’t need to look outside the state,” said Jasvir Kaur, director-principal of Adesh College of Nursing and Medical Sciences, Muktsar.

Meanwhile, people who support the migration ecosystem, believe that the change in aspiration is a short-term blip. “There’s no industry in Punjab. In most fields, the maximum salary an employee earns is about ₹35,000. That’s too low,” Prag Garg of Gray Jay IELTS centre said. He added that most students would want to migrate abroad, albeit a few years later, after they have gained some skills and educational credentials.

There remain several “push factors” for migrants, said researcher Neil Amber Judge. Some of those include a lack of industrialization in Punjab, poor infrastructure, and increasing gang violence.

Despite all these cons, Dilveer Singh doesn’t want to go abroad anymore. When he graduates from Baba Farid college, he wants to start an organic dairy farmingbusiness—in India. The naked reality of his siblings’ lives in Canada has shaken him to his core, and he believes he is better off in India.

“Rather than working hard there, why don’t we work hard in our own country? And make it better?” he asked.