Excess deaths in 2020 and 2021 were not equal to deaths directly caused by COVID-19, a senior Union Health Ministry official said on Saturday, referring to new data from the country’s official record of births and deaths.
The latest Civil Registration System (CRS) data indicates about 21 lakh more deaths were registered in 2021, the year when the deadly Delta wave of COVID-19 struck, compared with 2020.
“India’s cumulative excess mortality for 2020 and 2021 was 9.3% higher than the expected deaths [for the period], a figure which was lower than that of the U.S., Italy, and Russia,’’ the official said, referring to the latest CRS data.
A World Health Organization (WHO) report had estimated India’s ‘excess deaths’ for the period at 47 lakh. Another report in a top journal had cited 41 lakh ‘excess deaths’ in this period.
Stating that the number of deaths documented in the CRS has been increasing over time, even in the years preceding the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020, the official said that preliminary analyses of the CRS data to assess cumulative deaths in 2020 and 2021 had been carried out.
“Based on the three-year (2016-19) annual rate of increase of 6.42%, the expected number of deaths would be 81,31,869 in 2020, and 86,54,185 in 2021. However, the observed deaths were 81,15,882 in 2020, and 1,02,24,506 in 2021. The ‘excess deaths’, defined as observed deaths deducted from expected deaths were minus [-]15,987 and 15,70,321 in 2020 and 2021, respectively. Thus, the total excess deaths over the two-year period amounted to 15,54,334 — this is 9.3% higher than the expected deaths. This translates into about 1,249 excess deaths per one million population,” the official said.
‘Several reasons’
The source further explained that the increase in deaths registered in the CRS could be attributed to several reasons, including a larger population cohort, maturing reporting processes, and increased awareness of the need for registration leading to higher levels of registration.
This trend has been further accentuated over the years by mandatory requirements for death certificates linked to pension schemes, social security benefits, and property issues. Moreover, the official said, compensation for death by COVID-19 required death certification, prompting registration under the CRS.
These excess deaths include reported COVID-19 deaths (4,81,080 by the end of 2021); unreported COVID-19 deaths; deaths due to all other causes; and possible indirect effects of COVID-19.
Excess mortality in high-income countries, expressed as a percentage higher than the expected mortality, was found to be 17.6 % in the U.S., 11.8% in Italy, 11.8% in the U.K., 29.9% in Russia, 6.7% in France, 5.3% in Germany, and 5.2% in Canada. Excess mortality in middle-income countries was found to be 43.6% in Mexico, and 12.6% in Brazil. As stated, the corresponding figure for India was 9.3%, the official said.
“When expressed differently, India’s 1,249 excess deaths per one million deaths was much lower than in the U.S. (3,021 per million), Italy (2,573), the U.K. (1,874), France (1,281), Russia (7,240), Mexico (5,217), and Brazil (1,820), but somewhat higher than that of Canada (825) and Germany (1,214),” the official said.
In the past, reports of exorbitantly high excess deaths in India during 2020 and 2021, based on varying modelling methodologies, emerged in the public domain, other sources said.
The CRS data of the counted deaths at a high reporting rate, after accounting for secular increase, has yielded a much lower estimate of 15,54,334.
“India mounted a whole-of-government and whole-of-society response to the pandemic emergency. The strategy comprised five science-driven tools — testing, suppressing chains of transmission, clinical care, safe behaviour, and vaccination,” the official said.
“The virus was ultimately defeated by ‘Made in India’ vaccines, with over 220 crore doses administered in the world’s largest vaccination programme,” another official source said.
Of these, as many as 145 crore doses were administered in 2021 alone. It has been reported in peer reviewed medical journal, The Lancet, that the COVID-19 vaccination programme in India saved 34 lakh lives in 2021 itself, the source said.
The CRS in India is a compulsory, independent, and universal system for recording all births and deaths under the Registration of Births and Deaths Act, 1969. These events are reported to the local Registrar, based on which each State generates its respective report. The collated data from the State reports is published as the annual ‘Report on Vital Statistics of India based on the Civil Registration System’ by the Registrar General of India.
Published – May 10, 2025 11:59 pm IST