A mother seen putting face mask to her son while waiting for transport for Kanpur at the Ghazipur – NH24 Intersection during the 57th Day of the National Lockdown against spreading of Coronavirus in New Delhi.
In 2021, an analysis of excess deaths — the increase in the death tally over expected numbers based on previous years (2015-2019) — shows that the number was nearly six times more than the reported COVID-19 death toll. This was the year when the delta variant of the SARS-COV-2 virus wreaked havoc across the country.
Some States had a much higher multiple than the national average. For instance, the Gujarat government had officially reported only 5,812 COVID-19 deaths in 2021, but the excess deaths were 44 times this tally, the government data reveals. Similarly, the excess deaths in Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh were a multiple of 19.5 times more than the reported toll.
Chart 1 shows the total number of registered deaths in India over the years (in lakh). Over 1 crore registered deaths were recorded in 2021, a 27% increase compared to the previous year. The bump in 2021 is obvious on account of the pandemic.
To estimate the multiple, we calculated excess deaths in 2021 using a three-step method. First, we analysed registered deaths in each State from 2015 to 2019 and extrapolated this trend to estimate expected deaths for 2020 and 2021. This gives a reasonable estimate of the expected number of deaths in these years, if not for an extraordinary event. Next, we compared these expected figures with the actual registered deaths revealed by the newly released data. The difference between the two gave the number of excess deaths.
Most of these excess deaths are likely attributable to COVID-19 — the only major disruptive event during those years. Moreover, pandemic-related restrictions had significantly reduced deaths from other causes, such as road accidents, making it unlikely that non-COVID-19 factors were behind the surge.
Chart 2 shows India’s official COVID-19-related death count published by State governments in 2020 and 2021 compared to the excess deaths calculated based on the recently released reports. While the official COVID-19 death count in 2020 was about 1.5 lakh, about 3.8 lakh ‘excess deaths’ were recorded the same year. In 2021, while about 3.3 lakh COVID-19-related deaths were officially recorded, there were 21.5 lakh ‘excess deaths’ (6.5 times more).
The Hindu had earlier reported on COVID-19 mortality, and had estimated an excess death multiple of 5.8 times in 11 States, based on the CRS data retrieved through RTI applications and official sources. This multiple was the highest among nations with the most recorded fatalities due to the virus.
Charts 3 and 4 show the top 10 States with the highest multiple and the possible undercount (excess deaths minus reported death totals) in absolute terms. An analysis of the State-wise data shows that in 2021, COVID-19 deaths could have been undercounted by a factor of 44 in Gujarat, the highest such undercount in the country. That is, there were over 2.5 lakh excess deaths in Gujarat in 2021, whereas the State’s official COVID-19 death count for that year was 5,812. In Telangana, the multiple was 18. In Bihar, Andhra Pradesh, and Odisha, the multiple was over 13.
While all over India, over 18.2 lakh deaths, most of them due to COVID-19, were possibly not counted, U.P. has the highest number of such deaths on account of a large population. U.P. could have possibly not counted over 2.6 lakh COVID-19-related deaths in 2021. While the State had 2.8 lakh excess deaths in 2021, U.P.’s official COVID-19 tally for that year was only 14,551 deaths. Gujarat, Maharashtra, and Tamil Nadu had undercounted over 2 lakh covid deaths in 2021, data shows.
Source: Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner and The Hindu Centre for Politics and Public Policy
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Published – May 13, 2025 08:00 am IST