Omar Abdullah, Ruhullah Mehdi, and the National Conference’s Kashmir Strategy

When Omar Abdullah became the first elected Chief Minister (CM) of the Union Territory (UT) of Jammu & Kashmir (J&K), a restive region over which the Central government has extensive control, he realised that it would be a term filled with colossal challenges and confrontations. But it was not long before his elected administration could complete 100 days; he was put in a quandary, not by the Opposition, but from within his own party camp.

On January 9, in an interview, Aga Syed Ruhullah Mehdi, the Member of Parliament (MP) from Srinagar and senior leader of National Conference (NC) —the party that came to power in J&K after swaying the voters by its politics of recognition—said that Abdullah risked being seen as “Delhi’s representative in Kashmir” if he didn’t fight strongly for the rights that were snatched away from the people of J&K.

The interview came just weeks after Kashmir witnessed a rare political showdown when Ruhullah descended on the Gupkar Road in Srinagar, stood outside Abdullah’s residence and protested against his own government and the CM. The protests added weight to the mounting tensions sparked by controversial changes to the reservation rules introduced by the J&K Lieutenant Governor that sliced the open merit quota.

Through both, the protest and the interview, Ruhullah’s supposedly blunt stand fuelled a fresh barrage of criticism from his party compatriots, who accused him of being under “misconception” and aligning himself with “enemies”. For political observers, however, Ruhullah’s dissent against his own party may paradoxically be part of Abdullah’s broader strategy to balance keeping Delhi content while also sticking up for the larger anti-Delhi sentiment in the Kashmir Valley, which has reportedly been a fractious political landscape for over five years.

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“The politics agitated by Ruhullah is certainly not an idealistic expectation [of his party],” said Gul Mohammed Wani, a retired professor who headed the political science department at Kashmir University. “But, if it is done for certain advantages to have political supremacy, no party would be averse to such kind of dissidence.”

Who it serves

Ever since the Indian government stripped away J&K’s autonomy, cleaved it into two federally administered territories, and jailed most of the mainstream politicians in 2019, former Minister and three-time legislator, Ruhullah’s allegedly firebrand politics came into full swing. He remained a confrontational force against Delhi in Kashmir and aggressively voiced for the restoration of J&K’s semi-autonomous status.

His political posturing resonated with the broader sentiment in the valley that was precluded from any kind of dissent after 2019. This perhaps explains why NC chose to field him from the Srinagar Parliamentary seat in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, a race he won by a significant margin. Following his “high-decibel” win, he continued his vociferous opposition to Delhi.

“Ruhullah finds it the right time to expand his constituency,” Rekha Choudhary, the former professor of political science at the University of Jammu, told Frontline. “He has tried to assert himself as another force within the National Conference.”

His aggressive stand against the controversial measures implemented in J&K after 2019 has also earned political capital for his party, NC, which leveraged his political goodwill in the recently held Assembly election. This marked the first direct signal that Ruhullah’s anti-Delhi stand had NC’s backing.

“In extremely turbulent politics like Kashmir, where nothing is being given to people, Ruhullah’s stand isn’t unreasonable,” said Wani. “He has been agitating on the issues that have resonance on the ground. In fact, his dissidence has not actually concealed anything about his politics.” In contrast, since Abdullah took charge of UT’s reins, he has refrained from directly confronting the Central government. Both he and his party have largely avoided pushing for the restoration of Article 370, instead prioritising getting back statehood with a more conciliatory approach.

“Omar is trying to create his goodwill with the Central government so that it is easier for him to run the government,” said Rekha Chowdhary. “He is being more pragmatic in dealing with the Centre as for him the restoration of statehood remains at stake. There’s a realisation that a CM of a State isn’t as crippled as a CM of a UT who has extremely curtailed powers or no powers at all.”

It is on the grounds of these curtailed powers that are surrounded by enormous complexities that Wani also believes Abdullah is trying to strike a reconciliatory note to stay away from a confrontation with Delhi. “Omar realises that he is just in office and not [in absolute] power,” said Wani. “He knows that a confrontation with the Centre would only mean that all the powers would eventually go back in all its dimensions to Delhi.”

He added: “It wouldn’t be wrong to say that it’s a part of Abdullah’s broader strategy where he himself engages in keeping Delhi content while Ruhullah sticks up for larger anti-Delhi sentiment in Kashmir. It’s anyhow ending up balancing the situation for NC only.”

Shrinking Opposition’s space

While Ruhullah Mehdi’s “dissent” has undoubtedly resonated with the Kashmir constituency, it has also underlined the region’s frustration with the dichotomy of the National Conference’s political stand. Before the elections, the NC had promised radical changes if it came to power, but its post-election position now seems more cautious and conciliatory.

Capitalising on widespread disdain for the BJP-led government’s decision to revoke J&K’s special status, almost all regional political players—some with alleged patronage from the BJP—pledged to press for the restoration of the region’s pre-2019 constitutional status. NC was no exception.

The party promised to fight for the restoration of special status, give subsidies, bring in an act for jobs for youth, make efforts for the release of political prisoners and repeal the draconian Public Safety Act (PSA). But in the three months since the party secured a massive mandate in the Assembly election, Abdullah has largely sidestepped these promises while he continues to navigate a complex situation where reversing much of the changes brought about by the Central government remains difficult.

As the Delhi-controlled Lieutenant Governor continues to control major decision-making powers in the region, it has also overshadowed Abdullah’s stewardship. Abdullah, in turn, has avoided antagonising the Central government. “Omar knows that with limitations on his functioning, he needs the cooperation of the Centre,” said Rekha Choudhary. “He does not have the liberty to take the political position espoused by Ruhullah.”

Although Abdullah’s approach may stem from a sense of political pragmatism and a desire to engage with the Centre for having a more powerful term, it has sparked feelings of betrayal among the people. Even opposition parties like the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Peoples Conference have criticised him and tried to corner him for his “soft stand” toward Delhi.

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That said, even if Ruhullah’s dissent is largely driven by a desire to elevate his own political standing in Kashmir, some observers argue that NC’s leadership may actually welcome such internal dissidence. They say that this kind of opposition within the party serves certain strategic advantages, helping the NC to contain external criticism and keep rival political parties at bay.

NC is playing the role of the opposition itself, unwilling to cede that space to the PDP or any other party, fully aware that Abdullah is unlikely to deliver much under the current circumstances,” Wani told Frontline. “What opposition leaders have been saying, Mehdi has been saying more forcefully.”

Political observers believe that, whether driven by personal conviction or strategy, Ruhullah’s stance ultimately benefits both his party and Abdullah’s administration by helping to diffuse public anger.

Sellability of dual posturing

While the National Conference’s dual posturing—where MP Ruhullah takes a confrontational tone towards Delhi and Abdullah adopts a more peaceful approach—might seem like a viable strategy for the party in the short term, observers believe that this kind of politics may not be sustainable in the long run.

“Omar has to think about a different plan,” said political observer Wani. “How long will he go on with a heavy mandate on one side and a restricted authority on the other.” Popular governments always raise expectations, Wani added, and when it does not stand up to deliver on those expectations, there are always problems. “So, Omar is invested not only with a mandate but also with a responsibility and if he is not able to do justice, it is going to involve a lot of things including his career and party.”

Zaid Bin Shabir is a journalist based in Srinagar.