Five key reasons why Bihar election 2025 is high-stakes contest — shifting loyalties, popularity swings and Op Sindoor

Bihar’s top political leaders — Nitish Kumar, Tejashwi Yadav and the new entrant, Jan Suraaj Party chief Prashant Kishor — have started setting the tone for the upcoming elections as suspense grows over seat-share formulas and the chief minister’s face. After Operation Sindoor, this will be the first election in the country.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be in Bihar on Thursday, May 29, to inaugurate a slew of projects. A few days back, the Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha, Rahul Gandhi, launched the Congress’ campaign ‘Nyay Samvad’ to understand people’s “grief and problems”.

The assembly elections in Bihar are expected to be held in October-November this year. The main battle is likely to be between the National Democratic Alliance [NDA] and the Mahagathbandh. However, a pre-poll opinion survey suggests that Prashant Kishor may gain some popularity.

As the race for the Bihar CM post begins, here are five factors that make the 2025 assembly elections in Bihar important.

1. First election after Operation Sindoor

The Bihar Election 2025 will be the first election the country will witness after Operation Sindoor, which was launched on May 7 by the Indian armed forces in response to the April 2022 Pahalgam terror attack.

Will the timing of the election prove beneficial for the ruling NDA? As speculations mount, the BJP and the Congress have traded barbs over the “politicisation of Operation Sindoor”.

Congress leader Jairam Ramesh accused the BJP of politicising Operation Sindoor when reports had surfaced that PM Modi would meet the chief ministers of NDA-ruled states over Operation Sindoor.

“What is the mistake of the CMs of Karnataka, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, HP, Punjab, and J&K? What is this if not politicisation?” Ramesh had then asked.

Meanwhile, a poll by ‘VOTE VIBE’ revealed that 59 per cent of those surveyed believe PM Modi “should get credit for Operation Sindoor.” The report said, “The support increases with age 55+ group [shows 68.7 per cent support]; younger voters are comparatively more skeptical…”

2. Prashant Kishor’s entry

Best known as a political consultant and strategist, Prashant Kishor has vowed to contest and win the Bihar Elections 2025. This time, he will not make strategies but test the waters himself.

Last May, Prashant Kishor had exuded confidence that his Jan Suraaj Party would win in Bihar “on its own” in 2025. He had said in an interview with India Today, “Jan Suraaj will contest [all] 242 assembly seats [in Bihar] and will come to power with a majority.”

However, his newly launched Jan Suraaj Party failed to make an impact in the bypolls in Bihar. Candidates of the Prashant Kishor-led group lost deposits in all but one seat in November 2024.

Kishor, however, had then brushed off concerns about the poll outcome, highlighting the fact that his party won 10 per cent of the total votes polled in the four seats.

Besides, in a significant political development in Bihar ahead of the assembly polls, former Union minister Ram Chandra Prasad Singh has merged his political outfit, Aap Sabki Awaz (ASA), with the Jan Suraaj Party.

3. Election debut of Nitish Kumar’s son amid health concerns?

Speculations are rife that Nishant Kumar, the son of Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, may contest the 2025 Bihar elections from Harnaut constituency.

The rumours started after JD(U) supporters put up a poster outside the party office in Patna in support of CM Nitish Kumar’s son Nishant Kumar, news agency ANI reported. The posters reportely read ‘Bihar ki maang, sun liye Nishant, bahut bahut dhanyawaad (Nishant, thank you very much for listening to the demands of Bihar).”

Reports about Nishant Kumar’s election debut surfaced as opposition leaders raised concerns about his father Nitish Kumar’s health. Prashant Kishor said earlier, “Nitish Kumar is physically tired and mentally unfit.”

RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav also once referred to Nitish Kumar as a “tired” chief minister. On Nitish Kumar’s birthday, Tejashwi took a jibe, saying, “A 15-year-old vehicle doesn’t run, so why should a 20-year-old government?”

4. Popularity of Nitish Kumar, Tejashwi Yadav, Prashant Kishor

Several opinion polls suggest that RJD chief Tejashwi Yadav is the top choice for the next Bihar chief minister. One of the opinion polls revealed that while the popularity of Yadav and Nitish Kumar declined, that of Prashant Kishor rose in six months.

The C-Voter survey, accessed by Mint, suggested that Tejashwi Yadav was the most preferred candidate to be the next Bihar chief minister, followed by Prashant Kishor, making Nitish Kumar the third choice.

As per the C-Voter survey, Nitish Kumar’s popularity dropped by 3 per cent — from 18 per cent in February 2025 to 15 per cent in April. It showed that Tejashwi Yadav’s popularity declined from 40.6 per cent in February to 35.5 per cent in April. Meanwhile, the popularity of Prashant Kishor increased by around two per cent — from 14.9 per cent to 17.2 per cent.

Another opinion poll released by InkInsight also ranked Tejashwi Yadav as the top choice for the Bihar CM post, with Nitish Kumar in second place.

5. Nitish’s ‘pendulum swings’

It was only last year that Nitish Kumar switched alliances for the fifth time. It was just before the 2024 Lok Sabha elections when Nitish Kumar snapped ties with the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan and joined hands with the BJP.

According to the InkInsight opinion poll, 47.5 per cent of those polled believed that jumping ships before elections may have hurt Nitish Kumar’s credibility “to some extent” while around 26.6 per cent believed Kumar lost credibility to a “large extent”. Around 25.9 per cent said it did not impact his credibility.

The C-Voter survey also suggested that “pendulum swings” by Nitish Kumar in the last 10 years may have taken a toll on the Bihar CM’s “credibility and popularity”.