Bihar assembly election 2025: Is Chirag Paswan set to turn Shahabad region into an NDA stronghold?

Bihar assembly election 2025: The Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) sounded the poll bugle on 8 June, where its chief and Union Minister Chirag Paswan addressed the “Nav Sankalp Sabha” in Ara in the Shahabad region of Bhojpur district of Bihar.

Paswan asserted at the meeting that his party would script history from this region – not a stronghold of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Paswan’s party, LJP is an NDA constituent.

“Some people say that perhaps our alliance is not that strong – this beginning will show that what people are calling weak is actually laying the foundation for a historic win in that region,” he told India Today.

There are seven assembly constituencies, namely Sandesh, Barhara, Arrah, Agiaon, Tarari, Jagdishpur and Shahpur, in the Shahabad region.

“I will contest the assembly polls in Bihar. I will contest not just in Bihar but for Bihar and its people. I am the son of Ramvilas Paswan. I will realise the dreams of my father and work for ‘Bihar first, Bihari first’ to change Bihar,” PTI quoted Paswan as saying. The 42-year-old Hajpur MP remembered an old slogan he had coined prior to the previous assembly polls in 2020.

‘Better strike rate for my party, which would help NDA’: Paswan

“It is for the people of Bihar to decide from which seat in the state I should contest in the upcoming assembly elections. Whenever I take a political decision, I take it for the sake of the state and its people. Let me make one thing very clear. My contest will only ensure a better strike rate for my party, which would help the NDA,” he added.

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LJP (Ram Vilas) in 2020 Bihar assembly election

Paswan’s party contested on 134 out of 243 seats in the states, winning only Matihani seat whose MLA later switched to JD(U). It is believed that Paswan’s rebellion in the 2020 polls caused the defeat of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) JD(U), also a BJP ally, in 28 seats.

The party’s candidates secured second place in nine constituencies. In four of these, the LJP fielded BJP rebels as their candidates. In two other constituencies, JDU rebels contested under the LJP. It recorded a vote share of 5.66 percent, ending up giving its worst-ever performance since its inception in October 2000.

Shahabad region since 2005 election

Sandesh assembly constituency: RJD won in 2005, 2015 and 2020, whereas BJP secured the seat in 2010.

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Barhara assembly constituency: JD(U) won in 2005, RJD in 2010 and 2015; BJP secured the seat in 2020.

Arrah assembly constituency: BJP won in 2005, 2010, 2020; RJD secured the seat in 2015

Agiaon assembly constituency: BJP won in 2010, JD(U) in 2015, CPI(ML)L won in 2020, 2024 (by poll)

Tarari assembly constituency: JDU won in 2010, CPI(ML)L in 2015, 2020 and BJP won in 2020 (by poll)

Jagdishpur assembly constituency: JD(U) won in 2005, whereas RJD secured the seat in 2010, 2015 and 2020.

Shahpur assembly constituency: BJP saw its victory in 2005, 2010, whereas RJD won the seat in 2015 and 2020.

Jagdishpur has become a reliable seat for RJD, securing it in three consecutive terms (2010, 2015, 2020). Sandesh, Barhara, Jagdishpur, and Shahpur show alternating control between RJD and NDA allies (BJP/JD(U)), indicating highly competitive, swing constituencies.

Arrah shows BJP dominance, with wins in 2005, 2010, and 2020. Only exception is 2015. BJP’s by-poll win (2020) despite CPI(ML)’s general election victories suggests a tactical or turnout-based win. In Agiaon, CPI(ML) retained seat in 2024 by-poll, showing stable Left support.

History of Shahabad region

The Shahabad region of Bihar played a pivotal role in the Uprising of 1857, with Kunwar Singh, the jagirdar of Jagdishpur, emerging as its most prominent rebel leader. The rebellion persisted until 1858–59, and Kunwar Singh’s efforts cemented Shahabad’s significance in Bihar’s historical narrative. While Kunwar Singh is the most well-known figure from the region, other notable contributors included his younger brother Amar Singh and Hare Krishna Singh, a tehsildar of Shahabad.

LJP’s performance in Lok Sabha elections 2024

LJP contested five Lok Sabha seats in 2024 and won all of them, with Veena Devi, Chirag Paswan, Shambhavi, Rajesh Verma, Arun Bharti from Vaishali, Hajipur, Samastipur, Khagaria, and Jamui, respectively.

On August 9, 2022, Nitish resigned and took over as chief minister a day later after joining the Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance) and UPA. On January 28, he submitted his resignation and came back to NDA and formed the government by becoming the chief minister again.