J&K Politics: New Alliances After Pahalgam Attack

Nearly six years after the Union government abrogated Article 370, which granted special Constitutional status to Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), the region’s political landscape remains fluid: Old alliances are crumbling, traditional parties losing influence, and new coalitions are emerging in a pall of uncertainty and limited political power.

In the aftermath of the Pahalgam attack, which killed 26 tourists, the Kashmir Valley has been speculating on the restoration of statehood in the next Parliament session, the likelihood of a fresh Assembly election, and the rise of new political alliances. Together, these developments suggest a potential recalibration of the political structure in J&K.

The terrorist attack in Pahalgam this April, which claimed the lives of tourists and triggered several days of tension between India and Pakistan, brought Kashmir back into international focus.

In fact, Chief Minister Omar Abdullah also reacted to media reports suggesting that the Centre may consider restoring statehood to J&K in the coming months, possibly on the condition that a fresh Assembly election is held. “I read in a newspaper that statehood will be restored, but Assembly elections would have to be held afresh. Let them do it, who has stopped them?” Abdullah remarked, this June.

Now, the formation of a new alliance reflects the ongoing reconfiguration of political alignments in the Union Territory (UT), where traditional parties have been weakened and new actors are vying to fill the vacuum left in the wake of constitutional and administrative restructuring.

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In a new development to J&K’s evolving political saga, a new coalition, the People’s Alliance for Change (PAC), has been formed, bringing together Sajad Lone’s J&K People’s Conference, Hakeem Yaseen’s People’s Democratic Front, and the Justice and Development Front, an outfit formed this February, reportedly comprising former members of the proscribed religious party Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI).

According to analysts the coalition is less about ideology and more about recalibrating influence in J&K. The alliance they say marks another realignment in the post-Article 370 era, raising questions about the fluidity of political loyalties, the weakening of traditional parties, and what lies ahead for governance and electoral politics in the region. 

On the formation of the PAC, political and social commentator on J&K, Zafar Choudhary told Frontline that the alliance cannot be seen in isolation from the recent wave of media reports about the possible restoration of Statehood and fresh elections. “This could be about testing the political pulse”, Choudhary said. “Politics in J&K has long been shaped by the patterns of conflict. The Constitutional changes of 2019 were viewed as a turning point aimed at defining a clear political trajectory. However, there have been several disturbing developments since: Jammu has witnessed a rise in violence after 2019, with militants carrying out deadly ambushes on security forces and increasing attacks on civilians. Soldiers and policemen have been killed. Migrant workers and minority groups, including Kashmiri Pandits, have also been targeted in grenade attacks and firing incidents across Pulwama, Shopian, and Budgam.

The recent terror attack in Pahalgam, has reinforced the reality that the political environment remains heavily influenced by security concerns”.

Anuradha Bhasin, editor of Kashmir Times, says the timing of the PAC’s formation cannot be separated from the political signals currently circulating in the region. “The alliance has emerged amid renewed speculation around statehood and Assembly elections, but we must ask who is fuelling these rumours and to what end”, she said. “Such speculation has been around since 2019, with vague statements made by leaders, even in court. Ultimately, it is the Centre that controls the timeline. The courts have only said statehood should be restored at an “appropriate time,” which also remains vague”.

Bhasin, who is also the author of A Dismantled State: The Untold Story of KashmirAfter Article 370, said the formation of the PAC reflects a recurring pattern of political instability in J&K, marked by parties frequently rising, fragmenting, and regrouping—a process that has only deepened since 2019. While acknowledging that some of it may be electoral posturing, she questioned the practical impact of such alliances in today’s highly centralised system. 

“What do these alliances realistically hope to achieve,” she asked, “when the political system is so centralised that even an elected government cannot take basic decisions such as job appointments or official transfers?”

Since 2019, J&K has witnessed a series of shifting political alliances. The first major coalition, the People’s Alliance for Gupkar Declaration (PAGD), brought together parties such as the National Conference (NC), Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and the CPI(M) to demand the restoration of special status. While the alliance made early electoral gains, it soon began to unravel due to internal rifts, particularly over seat-sharing during the 2020 District Development Council (DDC) elections. 

Delhi’s micromanaging

Ahead of the 2024 Assembly election, the NC changed course by forming a pre-election alliance with the Congress and CPI(M) under the INDIA bloc, leaving the PDP on the sidelines. And just nine months after Abdullah assumed office as the first Chief Minister of the UT, a new the PAC coalition has emerged.

According to Bhasin the timing of the PAC’s formation raises questions. “It is not unreasonable to think that some sections within the BJP or the Central government may want these smaller players to participate in order to split votes and dilute the influence of stronger regional parties such as the NC”, said Bhasin. “There is a long-standing belief that Delhi interferes in Kashmir’s politics at a very micro level. The BJP, in particular, has refined this model across the country, and I would not be surprised if similar tactics are at play here. Historically, New Delhi has played a manipulative role in shaping political formations in J&K, and the PAC appears to follow that same trajectory”.

Choudhary also noted that decades of conflict and the way it has been managed have made the perception of Kashmir politics inherently suspicious. “Even genuine alliances are viewed with mistrust, and the sudden emergence of this coalition may suggest political manoeuvring behind the scenes, possibly involving New Delhi. There may not be a public admission of it, but there is a certain realisation in New Delhi that its policies have not delivered the desired results”.

Choudhary pointed out that while there has been a significant and widely acknowledged improvement in day-to-day security, there is little evidence to suggest that the broader conflict is nearing resolution. “Refusing to reinstate statehood and denying meaningful powers to an elected government for too long will be increasingly difficult for the Centre. Having recognised this, New Delhi is likely to chart a path that empowers the elected government while continuing to retain overarching control over security-related matters,” he said.

In the Valley, where public sentiment is shaped by decades of political turmoil, traditional parties such as the NC and the PDP have contributed to a narrative that fosters deep mistrust of emerging political formations. The ruling NC has dismissed the PAC as a proxy for the BJP, accusing it of lacking both legitimacy and public support.

Tanvir Sadiq, NC chief spokesperson and MLA from Zadibal, posted on X a criticising the alliance, referring to it as the BJP’s “loyal B-Team”. He wrote, “Look who’s back—the BJP’s loyal ‘B-Team,’ freshly repackaged as an alternative… When ideology fails, desperation unites. Let’s just call them Party B Pro Max. Now with Extra Obedience :)”

The NC’s scepticism is also rooted in the electoral track record of the PAC’s constituents. Most of the leaders and parties now part of the new alliance failed to secure any significant victories in the 2024 election. Their limited electoral appeal, combined with sudden political realignment, has fuelled speculation that the coalition is less about representing public will and more about political engineering.

Speaking to Frontline, J&K People’s Conference chief spokesperson and former MLA from Kupwara, Bashir Ahmad Dar, said the formation of the PAC stems from the failure of the NC-led government under Abdullah to address the concerns of the people. “We have seen how the current government has failed to meet public demands, whether it is the issue of student reservations, access to basic amenities, security verification delays, or the ongoing struggle for the restoration of Article 370 and statehood”, Dar said. He added that prominent and committed young leaders have now come together to offer people an alternative rooted in “real politics”, with the aim of fulfilling their aspirations.

When asked why the People’s Conference withdrew from the Gupkar Alliance—a coalition that, like the newly formed PAC, had pledged to fight for the restoration of Article 370 and statehood—Dar pointed to an internal breach of trust. “Both the NC and PDP weakened the alliance during the 2020 District Development Council (DDC) elections, as the NC fielded proxy candidates in several constituencies where the PAGD had already nominated candidates. This betrayal compelled us to leave the alliance,” he said.

No ideological clarity

Bhasin said the Gupkar alliance had initially united ideologically diverse parties around the shared goal of opposing the abrogation of Article 370 and the loss of J&K’s statehood, but the coalition eventually collapsed. “The PAC lacks such ideological clarity. For instance, Sajad Lone has a separatist background, while the Justice and Development Front (JDF) is linked to JeI. These are unlikely allies. It is difficult to see the strategic coherence unless the intent is simply to remain politically visible in a system where actual power is minimal,” she told Frontline. 

Besides Sajad Lone, most members of the PAC were unsuccessful contenders in the 2024 election, and their coming together appears to be an attempt to consolidate a vote bank in the long run to improve their prospects in future political contests. The entry of former JeL members into electoral politics, even before forming the JDF, was largely unsuccessful, with none managing to secure a win in any constituency. 

But for People’s Conference leader Lone, the inclusion of former JeI members in the PAC signifies victims joining hands. “This alliance is made up of those who have suffered. Unlike the NC, whose members inflicted pain on the people, the PAC represents those who bore that pain.”

While the JeI’s top leadership, including its chief Abdul Hameed Fayaz, remains behind bars along with several senior leaders and activists, a breakaway faction has joined hands with the People’s Conference to form the new political alliance. However, this offshoot appears to have limited representation from the original outfit.

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Only two relatively known figures with JeI backgrounds are part of the JDF—Ghulam Qadir Lone from north Kashmir, whose son Kalimullah Lone contested and lost from Langate in the 2024 Assembly election, and Ghulam Qadir Wani, a member from Pulwama.

A tehsil president of JeI in Anantnag, speaking on condition of anonymity, questioned the legitimacy of the JDF claiming any association with the banned organisation. “How can this new group be seen as JeI participating in politics when the outfit is still banned?” he told Frontline. “We are not in favour of elections because our core leadership is in jail and our assets have been seized. Our Constitution does not permit the creation of a separate political party. Only the advisory council can make such decisions, and neither Wani nor Lone were members of that council when the ban was imposed.”

In contrast, Kalimullah Lone, the former general secretary of JeI, defended the decision to enter electoral politics. The JDF views the ban on JeI as a political move, and believes it must be challenged through democratic means, he told Frontline. “We stayed away from elections since the rigging in 1987, but now we feel JeI is under political pressure, and the response must also be political. That is why we joined PAC, to align with others who have suffered and to challenge our ideological rival, the NC. There is suspicion around us, but we believe our voices can only be heard through political engagement.”

Kalimullah Lone questioned how a banned organisation could fight for its existence without a political platform. “How can we challenge the ban or seek justice for our seized schools and institutions if we do not participate in the democratic process? We also want to address the basic issues people face, alongside the larger fight for the restoration of Article 370 and statehood”.

Irfan Amin Malik is a journalist based in Jammu and Kashmir.