On April 4, 2025, the US stock market experienced its worst single-day performance in years, shedding approximately US$2.5 trillion in value as investors fled to safe-haven assets like US Treasuries and gold. The MSCI US index plummeted by 4.9 per cent, with particularly brutal declines in the energy sector, down 7.5 per cent, and information technology, which fell 7.0 per cent.
Meanwhile, defensive sectors like consumer staples, up 0.7 per cent, and utilities, down just 0.6 per cent, managed to weather the storm far better than their cyclical counterparts. This dramatic shift in market sentiment has been fuelled by fears that Trump’s tariffs—the steepest increase in American trade barriers in over a century—could choke economic growth, drive up inflation, and potentially tip the US economy into a recession.
Trump’s latest tariff policy, announced after the market closed yesterday, imposes a blanket 10 per cent tariff on imports from every country in the world, effective April 5. Citing his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977, the president framed the move as a necessary step to protect American industries and workers. However, economists are sounding the alarm about the near-term consequences. Higher tariffs are widely expected to increase the cost of imported goods, pushing up prices for American consumers already grappling with inflationary pressures.
At the same time, retaliatory measures from trading partners could dampen US exports, further slowing economic activity. Some analysts warn that the combination of higher prices and weaker growth could create a stagflationary environment, while others see a full-blown recession as a real possibility if the tariffs remain in place for an extended period. With markets now laser-focused on Friday’s US jobs report and an upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, investors are desperate for clues about how policymakers might respond to this escalating crisis.
The bond market has also reacted decisively, with Treasury yields dropping as expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts grow. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 10.2 basis points to 4.03 per cent, while the 2-year yield slid 17.7 basis points to 3.68 per cent, reflecting heightened recession fears and a flight to safety.
The US dollar index, meanwhile, shed 1.7 per cent, continuing its downward trend as investors reassess the outlook for US growth. Gold, a classic safe-haven asset, held steady at US$3,100 per ounce despite a modest 0.6 per cent dip, buoyed by persistent demand amid the uncertainty.
On the commodities front, Brent crude oil took a significant hit, tumbling 6.4 per cent to US$70 per barrel as traders worried that tariffs would sap global demand growth just as OPEC+ ramps up supply. Asian equities followed Wall Street’s lead, opening sharply lower, and US equity futures suggest stocks will start the day down an additional 0.2 per cent, signalling that the pain may not be over yet.
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The cryptocurrency market has not been immune to this turmoil, with Bitcoin experiencing a sharp decline in tandem with other risk assets. After hitting an intraday high of nearly US$88,000 less than 24 hours ago, Bitcoin plunged to a low of US$81,300—a drop of more than seven per cent—before recovering slightly to trade around US$83,000 as of this writing. The sell-off reflects broader market dynamics, as investors pull back from speculative assets in favour of safer bets.
Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, has also struggled. After failing to hold above the US$1,850 level, ETH dipped as low as US$1,751 and is now consolidating below the US$1,820 mark and its 100-hourly simple moving average. Technical indicators suggest resistance near US$1,840, with a bearish trend line forming at US$1,810 on the hourly chart. For Ethereum to mount a meaningful recovery, it would need to break through these levels and push toward US$1,880, but the current market mood makes that a tall order.
In my opinion, Ethereum’s performance is critical to sparking a broader crypto bull market—carries significant weight given its central role in the digital asset ecosystem. Ethereum remains the backbone of decentralised finance (DeFi), powering a vast array of applications from decentralised exchanges (DEXs) to non-fungible tokens (NFTs). Recent data underscores its resilience: in March 2025, Ethereum reclaimed its position as the leading blockchain for DEX trading, overtaking Solana with a trading volume of US$64 billion compared to Solana’s US$52 billion.
Platforms like Uniswap and Curve Finance have driven this surge, reinforcing Ethereum’s dominance even as it grapples with challenges like a historically low ETH burn rate and declining transaction fees following the implementation of EIP-1559. The drop in the burn rate has led to an increase in ETH’s total supply, raising concerns among some investors about inflationary pressures within the network. Yet, Ethereum’s ability to hold its ground amid these headwinds speaks to its enduring strength and adaptability.
Solana’s fading momentum in the DEX space, meanwhile, highlights the shifting tides in the crypto market. The hype around Solana-based meme coins, which fuelled much of its trading volume on platforms like Raydium and Pump.fun, has dissipated, allowing Ethereum to reassert its supremacy.
This resurgence is a testament to Ethereum’s robust infrastructure and developer community, which continue to innovate despite high gas fees and scalability concerns. For a bull market to take hold, Ethereum would indeed need to lead the charge, setting the tone for smaller altcoins and driving renewed investor confidence.
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However, the current macroeconomic environment—marked by Trump’s tariffs, a faltering US economy, and a risk-off sentiment—poses a formidable obstacle. If Ethereum can break through its technical resistance levels and capitalise on its DeFi leadership, it could spark the kind of momentum you envision. But for now, the broader market’s woes are keeping a lid on that potential.
Stepping back, the implications of Trump’s tariff measures extend far beyond the immediate market reaction. The US has long prided itself on economic exceptionalism, underpinned by robust growth, a strong dollar, and a dominant position in global trade.
Yet, this latest policy risks unraveling that narrative. Higher tariffs could disrupt supply chains, erode corporate profits, and alienate trading partners at a time when geopolitical tensions are already running high. The flight to haven assets suggests that investors are bracing for a prolonged period of uncertainty, and the upcoming US jobs report will be a critical litmus test.
A weak report could amplify recession fears, prompting the Fed to accelerate rate cuts—a move that might cushion the blow to stocks and crypto but could further weaken the dollar. Powell’s speech will also be pivotal, as markets look for any hint of how the central bank plans to navigate this tariff-induced storm.
In my view, the markets are at a crossroads. The tariff announcement has exposed vulnerabilities in the global economy that were previously masked by optimism about US growth and technological innovation. While defensive assets like gold and Treasuries may offer short-term refuge, the longer-term outlook hinges on how businesses and consumers adapt to higher costs and slower growth.
For risk assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies, the path forward looks treacherous, but opportunities could emerge if the Fed steps in decisively or if the tariffs are scaled back under political pressure. Ethereum’s role as a crypto bellwether adds another layer of intrigue—its ability to rally despite these headwinds could indeed signal a turning point for the digital asset space.
“For now, though, caution reigns supreme, and the world is watching closely as this high-stakes drama unfolds.” — Anndy Lian
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AI-generated image via ChatGPT (OpenAI).
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