Pakistan returns Indian border guard; As conflict sees no clear winner
by AFP Staff Writers
New Delhi (AFP) May 14, 2025
Pakistan returned a captured border guard to India on Wednesday, in a fresh sign of detente after a ceasefire ended four days of conflict between the nuclear-armed rivals.
The guard was captured a day after an April attack in Indian-administered Kashmir which killed 26 people and sparked tit-for-tat missile, drone and fighter jet attacks.
No group claimed responsibility for the April 22 attack but India blamed Pakistan for backing it. Islamabad rejects the accusations and has called for an independent probe.
“Purnam Kumar Shaw, who had been in the custody of Pakistan Rangers since 23 April 2025, was handed over to India,” India’s Border Security Force said in a statement.
The handover was “conducted peacefully and in accordance with established protocols,” it added.
Shaw’s wife Rajani had earlier told the Indian Express newspaper that she was confident he would come back after the ceasefire was announced.
– ‘I had lost hope’ –
“I had lost all hope,” Rajani Shaw, who is pregnant, said. “But after the ceasefire, I became a bit positive, and I have full faith in God that my husband will return safely.”
Pakistan’s army announced on Wednesday a new death toll from the fighting, saying India’s “unprovoked and reprehensible dastardly attacks” killed 40 civilians, including seven women and 15 children, and that 13 military service members had died in operations.
India has said that 15 civilians and five soldiers died.
Despite mutual claims on initial violations, the ceasefire still appeared to be holding on Wednesday.
The flare-up in violence was the worst since the rivals’ last open conflict in 1999 and sparked global shudders that it could spiral into a full-blown war.
The Pakistani military has said it downed five Indian jets, but has not admitted losing any aircraft of its own.
India has not disclosed losing any aircraft.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in a televised address to the nation Monday that Pakistan had chosen to attack rather than help it fight “terrorism”.
“If another terrorist attack against India is carried out, a strong response will be given,” he said.
Modi wrote on X Tuesday that he had met with service members involved in the conflict.
“It was a very special experience to be with those who epitomise courage, determination and fearlessness. India is eternally grateful to our armed forces for everything they do for our nation,” he said.
Pakistan’s foreign ministry said in a statement that it rejected Modi’s “provocative and inflammatory assertions” and his “propensity to fabricate misleading narratives to justify aggression”.
“Make no mistake, we will closely monitor India’s actions and behaviour in this regard in the coming days. We also urge the international community to do the same,” it added.
Militants have stepped up operations on the Indian side of Kashmir since 2019, when Modi’s Hindu nationalist government revoked the region’s limited autonomy and imposed direct rule from New Delhi.
A gunbattle at a forest around 65 kilometres (40 miles) from Pahalgam, the site of the April 22 attack on tourists, left three militants dead from the Lashkar-e-Taiba, a Pakistan-based militant group, the Indian army said Wednesday.
“The three were actively involved in recent terror activities in the region,” it said in a post on X.
“Recoveries from the operation include AK series rifles, large quantity of ammunition, grenades and other” military materials, it said.
Muslim-majority Kashmir is claimed in full by both countries, which have fought several wars over the territory since their 1947 independence from British rule.
India-Pakistan: conflict with no clear winner
Paris (AFP) May 14, 2025 -
A ceasefire between India and Pakistan has calmed fears of all-out war and despite conflicting claims, experts say no clear victor emerged in the brief conflict between the nuclear-armed foes.
– No clear winner –
Both South Asian countries claim to have achieved their goals in their worst conflict since 1999, without admitting significant losses.
Four days of intense fighting began last Wednesday when India launched strikes against what it described as “terrorist infrastructure” in Pakistan.
India claims Pakistan backs the militants it says were behind an April attack in which 26 people were killed in Indian-administered Kashmir — a charge Islamabad denies.
“If victory is defined by who lost the most manned aircraft, then India certainly lost this one,” said Ashley Tellis of the Carnegie think tank.
“But India also succeeded in effectively interdicting a range of Pakistani surface targets and imposing significant costs on Pakistan,” Tellis told AFP.
“Both sides continue to claim air-to-air kills, but clear evidence remains unavailable at the time of writing,” said Fabian Hoffmann from the University of Oslo.
“What stands out is the extensive use of conventional long-range strike systems by both sides to target military infrastructure deep within enemy territory, including sites near their capitals,” he added.
– Nuclear powers –
While slow to begin with, the international community, including the United States, eventually intervened, alarmed by the possibility of further escalation.
Hoffmann said the bitter foes showed little restraint despite the absence of “deliberate strikes on critical civilian infrastructure”.
“Any shift in that direction would… potentially bring the conflict closer to the threshold of nuclear use,” said Hoffmann.
The global trend towards violence, especially by states facing internal turmoil, demands greater international vigilance, according to Tellis.
The fact that both countries are nuclear powers “makes the conventional balances all the more important. But the fact remains that neither side has a decisive conventional edge in a short war,” said Tellis.
– Drones on the frontline –
Like other modern conflicts, this one confirmed the “widespread” use of drones for warfare, according to Oishee Majumdar from British intelligence firm Janes.
Israel Aerospace Industries’ exploding drones Harop and Harpy, as well as reconnaissance drone Heron were used by India, Majumdar told AFP.
According to specialist site Military Balance, India also deployed Indian drones Nishant and Drishti.
Indian media said New Delhi also used French SCALP and Indian BrahMos cruise missiles, and AASM Hammer bombs developed by France’s Safran.
The Pakistani army used Songar drones developed by Turkey’s Asisguard, according to Janes.
Military Balance said Islamabad was also armed with Chinese combat and reconnaissance drones — CH-3 and CH-4, Wing Loong — and Turkey’s Akinci and TB2 drones.
– Chinese neutrality? –
At the start of the conflict, China urged restraint from both sides and promised to play a “constructive role”.
But experts say Beijing has clearly picked a side. China said it considered Pakistan an “ironclad friend” and that it “understands Pakistan’s legitimate security concerns”, said Chietigj Bajpaee from think tank Chatham House.
Bajpaee also said that “over 80 percent of Pakistan’s arms imports over the last five years have come from China”.
“Beijing supplies Islamabad with key systems” including the HQ-9/P surface-to-air missile system, the LY-80 medium-range air defence and FM-90 defence systems, said John Spencer, an ex-US army officer and researcher at the Modern War Institute.
But Islamabad’s “reliance on Chinese exports has created a brittle illusion of strength”, said Spencer, adding that the systems are “designed to provide layered protection” but “failed” against India’s strikes last week.
– Rafale jet claims –
Pakistan claims to have shot down five Indian fighter jets, including three advanced French Rafale aircraft, all of which were in Indian airspace at the time. India has not disclosed any losses.
Rafale maker Dassault did not comment.
According to a European military source, it is “very unlikely” that three Rafales were destroyed, but “credible” that at least one was.
Analysts suggest that Indian aircraft were shot down by a Chinese air-to-air missile, the PL-15E, with a range of 145 kilometres (90 miles) in the version acquired by Islamabad, and whose debris was found in Indian territory.
“India lost at least one Rafale to a Pakistani J-10C firing a PL-15 air-to-air missile in an ultra-long-range air engagement,” said Carnegie’s Tellis.
This type of missile can target a position while remaining undetected “until its own radar is activated a few dozen kilometres away, or a few seconds” from its target, according to a French fighter pilot interviewed by AFP.
“You can’t escape it”.
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